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Ukraine is urging the United Nations (UN) to call an emergency Security Council meeting to condemn what the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is calling “nuclear blackmail” on the part of the Kremlin.
According to a statement issued by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on Sunday, “Ukraine expects effective measures to counter the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail by the United Kingdom, China, the USA, and France, in particular, as permanent members of the UN Security Council.”
“We demand to immediately convene an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council for this purpose,” the statement added.
The request from Ukraine came in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing over the weekend that Russia has made an agreement with neighboring Belarus to place tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, which Ukraine views as a serious escalation aimed at not only Ukraine but also its Western allies.
Putin attempted to justify the move by claiming that it was needed to counter NATO, saying, “We are doing what they have been doing for decades.” It is likely that Putin was referring to the tactical nukes that the U.S., and therefore NATO, have had placed in Turkey, across the Black Sea from Russia’s southern border, for decades. The nuclear weapons in Turkey are part of a “nuclear sharing” policy between NATO allies.
Putin claimed that Russia could have nukes stationed in Belarus by the summer, but numerous analysts believe that to be unlikely. Regardless, many in the West viewed the claim as the Kremlin’s determination to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal to pressure Ukraine’s Western allies to shy away from supporting Kyiv.
Putin’s remarks were condemned by Western leaders as being irresponsible, even though many in the West doubt that Russia will make changes to the way it deploys nuclear weapons.
Amid other claims, Putin has stated that 10 Belarusian aircraft have been retrofitted to carry Russian nuclear weapons and also noted that a storage facility for the weapons would be ready by July 1.
Analysts have been quick to point out that even if Putin followed through on his remarks and did transfer some of Russia’s nuclear warheads to Belarus, it would not significantly alter the Russian nuclear threat as it already has the ability to target a large range of territory from within its borders.
There is also the ongoing history of Western allies having U.S. tactical nuclear weapons stationed in a host of European countries, which Russia has long condemned, so Putin’s insistence that the warheads are being repositioned to counter NATO is by far more of an excuse than it is a credible reason.
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The Pentagon is concerned amid a rise in “troubling” reports that cooperation is increasing between Moscow and Beijing regarding China’s efforts to build new nuclear weapons. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Department of Defense (DOD) made an official accusation regarding the reports.
The Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy, John F. Plumb, said during a Wednesday House Armed Services’ strategic forces subcommittee hearing, “It’s very troubling to see Russia and China cooperating on this.”
“They may have talking points around it, but there’s no getting around the fact that breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons. So I think the [Defense] Department is concerned. And, of course, it matches our concerns about China’s increased expansion of its nuclear forces as well because you need more plutonium for more weapons,” Plumb added.
Despite Plumb’s comments during the hearing, the DOD appeared to have a hard time keeping up with which radioactive material Russia was supplying to China.
Plumb also discussed Beijing diversifying its high-tech weapons arsenal with assistance from Russia. Changes to the arsenal include high-altitude surveillance balloons, like the one shot down by the U.S. last month, and even hypersonic missiles with nuclear tips.
“China is engaged in a significant and fast-paced expansion and diversification of its nuclear forces. Also, Russia and China view space as a warfighting domain,” Plumb told the subcommittee.
Meanwhile, Congressmen are calling on the Biden administration to disrupt the relationship between China and Russia to interrupt the sharing of weapons technology between the two countries.
Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), who is the subcommittee chairman, said, “I’m hopeful that we will see a comprehensive strategy from the administration to break this relationship – and ideally shatter Rosatom.”
The DOD’s accusations come dangerously close to the recent pull out of Russia from the New START nuclear arms treaty, with Putin announcing last month that Moscow was suspending the agreement.
Lamborn said about the New START suspension and the exchange of treaty-mandated nuclear information, “It is curious that we provide Russia with this benefit under the treaty when Russia is no longer reciprocating.”
Many in Washington are beginning to view the Russian and China ‘threats’ as intertwined, largely in part to Russia’s war in Ukraine and Beijing’s continued support for Moscow.
In recent weeks, American intelligence has begun to report that Beijing is considering providing lethal weapons to Russia for its use in Ukraine.
Last week Rep. Mike Tuner (R-OH) told NBC’s Meet the Press, “The problem with China entering this is because you’ve got the West giving weapons to Ukraine.”
“You’ve got Russia depleting their stores. We obviously – the West together have an ability to impact Ukraine greater than Russia alone does,” Turner added.
Unfortunately, with China’s backing, Russia would become a much more powerful enemy for Ukraine and its Western allies to contend with. In the meantime, the U.S. government continues put pressure on Beijing over its ‘no limits’ partnership with Moscow.
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Last week, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, testified before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in "about 12 days."
Ali Safavi, who is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran is, in fact, capable of producing enough weapons-grade enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in "just 12 days."
According to Safavi, in order to produce one nuclear warhead, Iran would only have to utilize 3 advanced centrifuge cascades and only half of its existing supply of 60 percent enriched uranium, leaving plenty of uranium for additional weapons.
If Iran were to utilize its remaining 60 percent enriched uranium, combined with its stock of uranium that is 20 percent enriched, the country would have enough weapons-grade uranium to build 4 additional atomic warheads within a month.
Iran also maintains stocks of 5 percent enriched uranium and could produce two more weapons' worth of enriched uranium from that stockpile in 2 months.
Overall, Iran has enough enriched uranium to potentially build 7 nuclear weapons within 3 months.
"The urgency of addressing the imminent threat posed by Iran's nuclear program cannot be overstated," Safavi said. "With the regime's unwavering determination to obtain a nuclear weapon, the recent internal unrest within Iran, which has weakened the regime even further, may only serve to further motivate them towards this goal," Safavi added.
Additionally, on January 22, the IAEA also discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7 percent during a monthly interim verification at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The IAEA has not been satisfied with Iran's explanation for the highly enriched material and is still conducting a probe for more credible answers.
While it takes far more than just enriched uranium to produce an atomic weapon, Iran's Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) has been operating under the Iranian Ministry of Defense to develop all the necessary components of a nuclear warhead for the past 30 years. Such components include enriched uranium material, an explosion mechanism, and a launching device - like the Shehab 3 missile.
Despite prior setbacks, including the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mahabadi, who was the head of SPND for several years, the organization is still operational and continues its efforts to build a nuclear weapon for Iran.
While Iran appears to have built all or most of the components for a nuclear warhead, the detonation mechanism requires testing before it can be used as part of a weapon, and it is currently unclear as to whether or not the regime has completed the necessary testing of the mechanism, as such, it is unclear what Iran's timeline for the creation of an operational nuclear warhead might be.
What is certain, though, is that Iran has more than enough enriched uranium and the centrifuge facilities to create multiple nuclear weapons once all of the components have been developed and tested.
Safavi expressed a need for urgency on the part of the United States and Europe to condemn Iran's nuclear program and activate Article 6 of the Security Council resolution to enforce sanctions against the country.
"To prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, decisive action is paramount. The international community must prioritize this policy of decisiveness and remain steadfast in their efforts," Safavi said.
"Article 6 of the Security Council resolution and the practical implementation of sanctions must be enforced without waiver, as failure to do so could have dire consequences for regional and global peace and security," Safavi concluded.
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While speaking to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, Undersecretary of Defense, Colin Kahl, suspiciously testified that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in "about 12 days."
According to Kahl, Iran's enrichment capacity has risen sufficiently since the U.S. abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the "Iran nuclear deal" 5 years ago.
"Because Iran's nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb's worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days," Kahl testified.
"And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice," he added.
Other top officials, however, doubt that Iran is stockpiling uranium enriched beyond 60 percent, which is well below weapons grade. The same officials also have expressed doubts about Iran's technical capabilities to build nuclear weapons.
It is a feat to get enough 90 percent enriched uranium to create a bomb, much less package it into a deliverable, operable weapon. Regardless of whether or not Iran was stockpiling enriched uranium, the country lmay ack the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon.
Despite the confusion, Pentagon officials continue to maintain that the U.S. needs to enter another nuclear deal with Iran, rather than not having one in place.
The Israeli Air Force announced this week that it will conduct a proactive mock mission with the U.S. Air Force to take out Iranian nuclear sites. It is the largest joint aerial drill that the two countries have conducted together in years. According to the Jerusalem Post, “The drill will take place from Tuesday until Thursday over the Mediterranean Sea and Israel. It will include long-range flights such as those that Israeli pilots might need to make in order to reach the Islamic Republic.”
Given the distance of the training, aerial refueling tankers from both countries will participate in the drills along with fighter jets. The joint training comes after the U.S. and Israel have recently promised tighter military and intelligence cooperation and support to one another, with the U.S. promising to assist Israel with missile defense if it were ever to be attacked.
In a meeting with CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla, last week, IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi said, “We are operating together on all fronts to gather intelligence, neutralize threats, and prepare for various scenarios in either one or multiple arenas.”
The joint drills come as Benjamin Netanyahu is forming a government in response to recently being re-elected Prime Minister of Israel. Netanyahu has previously consistently warned that Israel would preemptively strike Iran if the country were ever to develop a nuclear weapon.
Reports of a Russian unit specializing in nuclear weapons being deployed for a possible test of an underwater nuclear device, or even use of a tactical device in the conflict, have surfaced.
Below is verbiage from the intelligence firm Inkerman. The video below is from a source inside Russia of special forces being bused to deploy with this unit, escorted by police.
The soldier says, “Don’t worry, everything is going to be ok”...
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