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In an unprecedented move, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland have signed a defense pact that is likely to anger Moscow. The 4 Scandinavian countries have issued a Joint Declaration of Intent (DJI), which states their intent to combine their respective air forces into one unified air defense unit.
The JDI was signed at Ramstein Air Force Base earlier this month but was only announced in recent days.
Danish Air Force Commander, Gen. Jan Dam, said regarding the pact, "Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country."
Given that the unification of the 4 countries' air forces means that all will have to come to the defense of any one country that is under attack by a common enemy led DefenceNews.com to call the pact the establishment of a "mini NATO."
While Russia was never directly named in the JDI agreement, the move is clearly in response to growing concerns about Moscow's increasing aggression since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
According to the chief of the Norwegian Air Force (NAF), Maj. Gen. Rolf Folland, the 4 countries combined will have roughly 250 advanced combat aircraft at their disposal. Folland also suggested that a joint air operations center in the future could also possibly have commanders from the U.S. and Canada to offer the group further coordination and guidance.
"There is obvious interest in a regional initiative for a joint air command on NATO's northern flank. We know the conditions in the High North well, and we have a lot to learn from each other. With a total of almost 250 modern combat aircraft, this will be a large combat force that must be coordinated," Folland said.
On Monday, British Minister of State for Defense, Annabel Goldie, said that the U.K. would provide depleted uranium armor-piercing rounds for the Challenger 2 battle tanks it plans to send to Ukraine. The depleted uranium rounds are “highly effective in defeating modern tanks and armored vehicles,” Goldie said in trying to justify the decision. The move would represent a significant escalation in the war.
While the British downplay any nuclear risks related to this irresponsible move, injecting this type of material into a country that has already suffered the devastating effects of the Chernobyl disaster is the height of irresponsibility. Depleted uranium shells punch a hole through the target upon impact, while uranium burns itself into tiny particles that spread out in the atmosphere. Inhaled or ingested, they can enter human bodies, causing disastrous damage due to radiation exposure and heavy metals.
Depleted Uranium (DU) has 60 percent of the radioactivity of natural uranium and is considered very dangerous. The United States used depleted uranium ammunition in former Yugoslavia and in the Iraq War. That decision inflicted serious long-term damage on the populations of those countries. A British Medical Journal study found that “The available evidence suggests possible associations between exposure to depleted uranium and adverse health outcomes among the Iraqi population.”
Through this reckless decision, the British have increased the likelihood of a nuclear conflict. During a joint press conference with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters, “Russia will have to react accordingly, bearing in mind that the collective West is already beginning to use weapons that have a nuclear component.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a harsh response condemning the move. “We regard the statement made by British Minister of State for Defense Annabel Goldie about the U.K. government’s plans to send armor-piercing depleted uranium rounds for the Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine as yet another proof of London’s intention to take the lead in the anti-Russia campaign…. London has apparently forgotten about the well-known serious consequences of the use of toxic and radioactive munitions by the West during the conflicts in Yugoslavia and Iraq,” the statement reads. “A desire to increase the suffering of civilians and to do irreparable environmental damage shows that the British have no regard whatsoever for the Ukrainian people. This openly cynical British policy has once again shown who the real aggressor and warmonger in Ukraine is. London must know that it will bear full responsibility for violating the fundamental norms of international law…. We will respond to such actions accordingly.”
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson also condemned the move, stating that “NATO dropped 15 tons of depleted uranium bombs on Yugoslavia causing death and agony to linger for generations after the war. In Serbia after 1999, many children suffered from tumors and 366 participating NATO Italian military personnel died of cancer.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby brushed off concerns about the U.K.’s escalation of the conflict, stating “Depleted Uranium Is ‘Commonplace Munition.’ If Russia Is Worried About Their Tanks, Move Them Out Of Ukraine.”
This led Russia’s Ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, to declare, “Commenting on this kind of nonsense is really hard. U.S. officials have reached a new low with their irresponsible statements. There is a continuous flow of lethal weapons to Ukraine, which are used to annihilate civilians, residential areas, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens. It seems that the enlightened West, led by Washington, has irrevocably decided to bring humanity to a dangerous line, beyond which a nuclear Armageddon is looming ever more distinctly.”
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In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Chinese military said that it drove away a U.S. guided missile destroyer that had "illegally" enter Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea.
According to the Southern Theatre Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), the USS Milius entered waters near the disputed Paracel Islands before being warned by the PLA and allegedly driven away by the Chinese military. The U.S. and its Western allies have long denied that the waters belong to China after Beijing militarized several island chains in the region years ago.
While China's account of Thursday's incident indicates that the PLA forced the U.S. destroyer to leave the waters, the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet denies the claims.
Lt. j.g. Luka Bakic referred to the destroyer's actions as part of a routine operation in international waters and said of the incident, "USS Milius is conducting routine operations in the South China Sea and was not expelled" and added that "The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows."
The Chinese continue to disagree with a PLA spokesman calling the event an "illegal incursion into Chinese territorial waters... without permission from the Chinese government, harming peace and stability" in the region.
"The theatre forces will maintain a high state of alert at all times and take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security and peace and stability in the South China Sea," the spokesman concluded.
The Parcel Islands are claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, both U.S. allies, which has caused encounters with rival vessels to quickly escalate into intense standoffs.
The U.S. for years has consistently maintained that incidents that the PLA is calling "illegal incursions" are really 'innocent passages' that follow international maritime law, which means that permission is not needed to transit through the disputed waters. Beijing, however, has always challenged Washington's stance on U.S. intrusions into waters the Chinese see as theirs.
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On Tuesday, the U.S. Army opened its first permanent garrison on NATO's "eastern flank" at Camp Kosciuszko in Poland. NATO's eastern border stretches from the Baltics to the Black Sea and is comprised of 8 countries, all of which are former members of the Warsaw Pact or the USSR. Now, the U.S. Army's V Corps will have a permanent presence in the region.
According to comments from the V Corps' commanding general, Lt. Gen. John Kolasheski, the garrison represents Washington's deepened military commitment to Eastern Europe. "The relationship of the U.S. and Poland serves as an example of the deepening ties throughout the alliance," Kolasheski said before adding, "today's activation ceremony is a tangible reminder of the growth in our relationship."
During the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, many Western leaders reassured Russia that NATO would not establish bases in Eastern Europe or expand its borders into former USSR states. All subsequent U.S. presidents since George H.W. Bush made those promises to Moscow have violated that vow and expanded NATO's border ever closer to Russia's.
The garrison was described as "historic" by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, who added that Warsaw has been "striving for this for years - for this word 'permanent' - and it has now become fact."
Błaszczak concluded that "this is a historic moment, a sign that the United States is committed to Poland and NATO, and that we are united in the face of Russian aggression."
Given that the U.S. only has 2 officers currently stationed at Camp Kosciuszko and 200 additional troops that rotate in and out of the base, with the Pentagon having already kept about 10,000 troops in Poland, Artur Kacprzyk, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, claimed that the significance of the new garrison "is primarily symbolic."
While an American diplomate has confirmed that Camp Kosciuszko was built to confront Russia, the garrison is not near the Russian border. Poland has been a key player in getting Western arms shipments and other equipment to Ukraine, given its proximity to the war-torn country. According to a tweet from U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski, the decision to open a permanent base in Poland proves that "the United States is committed to Poland and the NATO alliance, and that we are united in the face of Russian aggression."
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been in Moscow meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and laying out Beijing's 12-point peace plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine since Monday. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it known that he is also willing to meet with Xi to discuss Kyiv's peace formula for a possible end to the war that entered its second year last month.
"We believe that many of the provisions of the peace plan put forward by China are consonant with Russian approaches and can be taken as the basis for a peaceful settlement when they are ready for that in the West and in Kyiv," Putin told Xi.
"However, so far we see no such readiness from their side," Putin added, assigning blame for the lack of peace talks on Ukraine.
Zelensky, however, said Tuesday that the Ukrainian government has already reached out to China and invited officials in Beijing to engage in talks regarding how to implement Kyiv's peace plan and that he is waiting to hear back from the Chinese.
"We offered China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula across all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer," Zelensky said during a Tuesday press conference and added, "We are receiving some signals, but there are no specifics yet."
Last month, Zelensky surprised many when he responded positively to Xi offering Beijing's 12-point peace plan as a starting place for negotiations.
"I think the fact that China started talking about Ukraine is not bad. But the question is what follows the words," Zelensky said last month.
"I think some of the Chinese proposals respect international law, and I think we can work on it with China. Why not? Our goal is to gather many around us to isolate one [Russia]," Zelensky concluded.
After China released its peace plan a few weeks ago, Beijing has begun to emerge as a mediator between the two countries, but not everyone is happy about the possibility of China-led peace negotiations. Washington has been forced to take a backseat amid unprecedented Russian and Chinese cooperation.
There is also likely mounting pressure being put on Zelensky to reject any friendly approaches from China, as many in the West see Beijing's attempt at mediating negotiations as a way to keep Russia strong and on the offensive in Ukraine. It will be interesting to see if China and Ukraine are able to materialize talks that bring in Moscow, although Washington is sure to be quite displeased.
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Last week, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, testified before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in "about 12 days."
Ali Safavi, who is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran is, in fact, capable of producing enough weapons-grade enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in "just 12 days."
According to Safavi, in order to produce one nuclear warhead, Iran would only have to utilize 3 advanced centrifuge cascades and only half of its existing supply of 60 percent enriched uranium, leaving plenty of uranium for additional weapons.
If Iran were to utilize its remaining 60 percent enriched uranium, combined with its stock of uranium that is 20 percent enriched, the country would have enough weapons-grade uranium to build 4 additional atomic warheads within a month.
Iran also maintains stocks of 5 percent enriched uranium and could produce two more weapons' worth of enriched uranium from that stockpile in 2 months.
Overall, Iran has enough enriched uranium to potentially build 7 nuclear weapons within 3 months.
"The urgency of addressing the imminent threat posed by Iran's nuclear program cannot be overstated," Safavi said. "With the regime's unwavering determination to obtain a nuclear weapon, the recent internal unrest within Iran, which has weakened the regime even further, may only serve to further motivate them towards this goal," Safavi added.
Additionally, on January 22, the IAEA also discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7 percent during a monthly interim verification at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The IAEA has not been satisfied with Iran's explanation for the highly enriched material and is still conducting a probe for more credible answers.
While it takes far more than just enriched uranium to produce an atomic weapon, Iran's Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) has been operating under the Iranian Ministry of Defense to develop all the necessary components of a nuclear warhead for the past 30 years. Such components include enriched uranium material, an explosion mechanism, and a launching device - like the Shehab 3 missile.
Despite prior setbacks, including the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mahabadi, who was the head of SPND for several years, the organization is still operational and continues its efforts to build a nuclear weapon for Iran.
While Iran appears to have built all or most of the components for a nuclear warhead, the detonation mechanism requires testing before it can be used as part of a weapon, and it is currently unclear as to whether or not the regime has completed the necessary testing of the mechanism, as such, it is unclear what Iran's timeline for the creation of an operational nuclear warhead might be.
What is certain, though, is that Iran has more than enough enriched uranium and the centrifuge facilities to create multiple nuclear weapons once all of the components have been developed and tested.
Safavi expressed a need for urgency on the part of the United States and Europe to condemn Iran's nuclear program and activate Article 6 of the Security Council resolution to enforce sanctions against the country.
"To prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, decisive action is paramount. The international community must prioritize this policy of decisiveness and remain steadfast in their efforts," Safavi said.
"Article 6 of the Security Council resolution and the practical implementation of sanctions must be enforced without waiver, as failure to do so could have dire consequences for regional and global peace and security," Safavi concluded.
Despite its alleged neutrality, there is evidence that Serbia has provided as many as 3,500 Grad rockets to Ukraine. According to Ukraine Arms Tracker, the rockets being delivered to Ukraine are the ER Grad 2000 version, with a maximum range of 40 kilometers instead of the standard 20 kilometers. If the authorities in Belgrade knew this, it would be a significant violation of the country’s declared policy, one reaffirmed by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on multiple occasions.
These new revelations follow a 2019 scandal in which Serbia was caught supplying 60mm mortar shells to Ukraine that ended up being used against the civilian population in the Donbass region. Vučić apologized for that incident, claiming that Krušik had sent them to Poland. But published documents proved that Ukraine was listed as the recipient.
The Mash News Agency published a video of a warehouse in Bratislava where the 3,500, 122mm M-21 rockets for Grad rocket launchers were being housed before their transfer to Ukraine. According to Mash, the rockets were delivered to Slovakia on February 4 and 6. The video also presents documentation showing the Serbian Defense Company Krušik as the manufacturer and that the order was placed by a Canadian company JNJ Export Import for use in Turkey. The exporter of the ammunition was the Serbian company, Sofag. Upon receiving the shipment, the Turkish company Arca transferred the ammunition to the American company Global Ordinance, which then transferred it to Slovakia for use by Ukraine.
The Serbian Defense Ministry publicly denied any involvement in the matter. “We absolutely do not export weapons to Ukraine or Russia, and we have the right to export (weapons) to other countries that are legitimate end users,” Serbian Defense Minister Miloš Vučević told members of parliament on February 27. “Whether private companies buy (weapons) on third country markets and whether they sell to companies in other countries is not an issue for Serbia. We will not sell to anyone who participates (in military conflict) and we do not want our weapons to be used against any of the parties.” Vučević added.
The deal has aroused a great deal of suspicion because the Serbian company Sofag that exported the ammunition to Turkey is owned by Jelena Petrović, the daughter of shady arms dealer Slobodan Tešić. Tešić was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2017 for bribery and violating arms embargos. The sanctions, however, have not stopped him from selling arms to as many as six American companies, including the Global Military Products – part of the Global Ordnance group, which supplies weapons to the U.S. Department of Defense.
The Global Ordnance Group is owned by Marc Morales, another disreputable arms dealer who was previously indicted by the U.S. Justice Department in 2010 on charges of trying to bribe Gabon’s Minister of Defense to secure a $15 million arms deal. The Gabon deal was, in reality, an FBI sting operation to root out bribery of foreign officials in the arms industry. The case, however, fell apart on technicalities the following year.
In a 2022 interview with the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), Marc Morales, however, disavowed any ties to Tešić, saying, “To my knowledge, nobody from my company has ever met him and Global Ordnance definitely does not do business with him. And to clarify, I have never met him either.”
Do Serbian authorities know to whom they ended up selling the rockets? Alexander Milovanović, a former employee of the security service of the arms production enterprise Jugoimport SDPR, told the Serbian News Agency N1 that it is not plausible that Serbian authorities did not know of the transfer. “Based on the end-user certificate coming directly from a Turkish partner structure of our Ministry, these weapons should have ended up in Turkey, but apparently that did not happen. Then, the company MSM Novaky handed over the missiles to the Global Ordnance Trading Company, owned by Mark Morales, to which the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense issued a certificate of use,” Milovanović told N1.
Interestingly, Ukraine Arms Tracker seems to corroborate Milovanović, posting on Twitter, “It is also worth noting that the markings on the rockets were changed and do not match those usually seen on G2000 rockets, which may indicate that the manufacturer/exporter knew the rockets ultimate destination and tried to hide the origin.” While it is unlikely that definitive evidence will be revealed, it seems plausible that both Serbian and American authorities had direct knowledge of the scheme and signed off on it. Serbian authorities have been trying to appease Washington and Brussels in their efforts to join the European Union, while American authorities have no compunction about using disreputable arms dealers in their efforts to prop up the regime in Kiev.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, on Tuesday, confirmed that NATO and its members want Ukraine to eventually join the military alliance at some point in the future. “NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of our alliance, but at the same time that that is a long-term perspective,” Stoltenberg said.
“What is the issue now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation, and therefore we need to support Ukraine,” he added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing NATO for a “fast-tracked” process, despite his country being engaged in war with Russia and having an ongoing conflict in the country’s eastern region dating back to 2014 when Moscow annexed the Crimea peninsula and made it part of Russia.
NATO has never admitted a country that is engaged in an active conflict or has had an active conflict on its border, as doing so would automatically trigger Article 5 once the country was accepted into the alliance.
Ukraine is not the only country having difficulty joining NATO, with Sweden and Finland facing recent struggles as they attempt to join the alliance with a joint bid. All NATO members must unanimously agree to allow a country to join, but Turkey and Hungary have refused to admit Sweden. Stoltenberg said of the two holdout members, “My message has been for a long time… that time has come to finalize the ratification process. The time is now to ratify in both Budapest and in Ankara.”
In an effort to support Kyiv, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin added, “I see that the future of Ukraine is to be part of the European Union and also a member of NATO.”
However, CIA Director William Burns cautioned in a 2008 cable that Ukraine being permitted to enter NATO would be the “brightest of all red lines.”
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” Burns wrote in the cable. “I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests,” he concluded.
Not only is Ukraine’s entry into NATO going to be a slow process and a long way off, but the process for Kyiv to join the EU is expected to take years or even decades, according to some predictions.
Some Ukrainian officials are saying that their nation is already a de facto member of NATO, given how the level of arms and training NATO allies have offered the country already. Putin views assistance from NATO the same way and has made demilitarizing Ukraine one of Russia’s invasion objectives as a result of it.
Israel's latest government under Benjamin Netanyahu is increasing its talks with Saudi Arabia regarding strengthening military ties and intelligence sharing between the two countries. The U.S. government has been backing the recent talks.
The Israeli-Saudi discussions are part of an attempt to form a NATO-style anti-Iran alliance in the Middle East between Israel and the United States' Gulf Arab allies.
While Saudi Arabia has still not normalized relations with Israel, the leaders of both nations have subtly increased cooperation with one another. In 2022, both countries participated in their first public, joint military exercises.
Talks were reportedly held between Saudi and Israeli officials ahead of a meeting of the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Working Group on February 16. Additional talks were expected to take place over the weekend during the Munich Security Conference.
Under the Abraham Accords, Israel normalized with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 and has since increased cooperation with the U.S.'s Gulf allies.
Since the Abraham Accords, the U.S. has brought Israel into U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which is the U.S. command responsible for the Middle East.
Adding Israel to CENTCOM operations has allowed for more cooperation between Israel and Arab countries in the region. Prior to the Abraham Accords, Israel was classified under U.S. European Command since it did not have normalized relations with most U.S. allies in the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel have a joint interest in creating a future anti-Iran alliance in the region that will focus on integrated air defense systems.
With the Netanyahu government insisting that it will expand settlements on the West Bank, it is unlikely that Saudia Arabia will engage in a normalization deal with Israel, as the Saudis have stated that such a deal would depend on the creation of a Palestinian state.
However, it is possible that the Saudis could eventually be enticed by the U.S. to do a normalization deal with Israel if the U.S. provides additional military assistance and increased arms sales.
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In a recent interview with the CBS program "Face the Nation," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that he hoped U.S. President Joe Biden would confirm his conviction to see Russia defeated in Putin's war against Ukraine.
Morawiecki also made it known that he did not agree with French President Emmanuel Macron or German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who both believe that Russia "cannot win this war and Ukraine cannot be defeated."
According to Morawiecki, "We have to change that paradigm, and we have to say, Ukraine must win, and Russia must be defeated." The reason for Morawiecki's determination that Moscow has to be defeated is because "the very nature of Russia is to conquer other countries."
When asked about how he felt about attempting to negotiate with Putin remaining in power, Morawiecki noted that he had just come from the Munich Security Conference and pointed out that Munich had also been the site of another conference in 1938 when other European leaders had thought they had negotiated peace.
"This time around, there was no room for such naivety, and it was up to the Ukrainians to define what would be negotiated with Russia and when," Morawiecki added.
The Prime Minister was also asked if any movement had been made with the U.S. in an effort to increase the U.S. military presence in Poland. Morawiecki said that his country was in talks with the Biden administration to strengthen the U.S. military presence in Poland from the current 11,000 troops stationed there and to make it "more permanent."
Morawiecki warned that "if we fail to integrate Ukraine into NATO and the European Union, Ukraine will always be a buffer zone," meaning that the region will not be secured until Ukraine's ascension to the military alliance has been confirmed.
The Prime Minister deflected a bit when asked if Warsaw would send fighter jets to Kyiv and noted that a year ago, no one imagined that Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks or Patriot systems would be offered to Ukraine.
He then added that fighter jets could only be given, "in combination with other NATO allies, and in particular, under the leadership of the United States."
Morawiecki appears to be taking the same approach that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took regarding sending tanks to Kyiv, saying that the U.S. must send tanks first.
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As NATO warns that its stockpiles of artillery munitions are running low, the U.S. military is attempting to train Ukrainian forces to change how they fight in order to conserve shells. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, outlined the effort after a meeting in Brussels with the Ukraine Defense Contact group.
Austin told reporters, ”We are working with the Ukrainian soldiers in various places throughout Europe to emphasize additional training on maneuver so that as they place more emphasis on maneuver and shaping the battlefield with fires and then maneuvering, there’s a good chance that they’ll require less artillery munitions, but that’s left to be seen.”
The secretary confirmed that Ukraine has used “a lot of artillery ammunition” and reiterated that the U.S. is doing everything possible to keep supplying Kyiv with more munitions. “We’re going to do everything we can, working with our international partners, to ensure that we get them as much ammunition as quickly as possible and that we’ll do everything we can to sustain our efforts there as well,” Austin added.
Over the course of the past year, the U.S. has sent an overwhelming amount of artillery to Ukraine, particularly 155mm shells. Due to the depletion of U.S. stockpiles and the continuing demand for more munitions from Kyiv, the Pentagon is increasing its production of artillery shells by 500 percent over the next 2 years to meet the demand and replenish stockpiles.
Even with the drastic increase in the production of ammo, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg said Monday, it is still uncertain whether or not continuing to provide massive weapons caches to Ukraine is sustainable for NATO as Kyiv is burning through more munitions than the military alliance can produce.
“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,” Stoltenberg added.
Meanwhile, the Chairman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, announced last week that Russia had lost the war and indicated that it was up to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his “war or choice.”
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As Washington looks for new ways to fund the war in Ukraine, the U.S. Army has begun assessing the possibility of sending thousands of Iranian weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition to Kyiv.
According to anonymous U.S. and European officials, the weapons and ammo to be turned over to Ukraine would include more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses, which were seized recently in the Gulf of Oman while allegedly being shipped to Yemen.
While the weapons and ammunition pale in comparison to what Western allies have sent to Kyiv over the past year, Pentagon officials see the handover of the small weapons cache as a symbolic punishment for Iran, which has been supplying drones to Russia and has recently entered into an agreement with Moscow to build a manufacturing site for Iranian drones inside Russian territory. Both Iran and Russia have denied that Tehran has been supplying Moscow with drones.
According to the U.S. official, “It’s a message to take weapons meant to arm Iran’s proxies and flip them to achieve our priorities in Ukraine, where Iran is providing arms to Russia.”
There are still legal hurdles to clear before the Biden administration can send the weapons to Ukraine. According to the UN arms embargo on Iran, Western countries are required to destroy, store, or get rid of any seized weapons.
President Joe Biden could possibly overcome the legal challenges by creating an executive order or by working with Congress to all the U.S. to seize weapons under the civil forfeiture authorities and then pass them along to Kyiv.
Regarding the U.S. looking for ways to send the seized Iranian weapons and ammo to Ukraine, Yemen’s Deputy Information Minster told the Wall Street Journal, “What change can this make to war?”
NATO Secretary General told NATO defense ministers during a meeting in Brussels on Monday that “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” Ukraine’s Western allies recently requested Latin American nations to also donate some of their weapon stocks to Kyiv – a request which was immediately denied.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro responded to the request last month, saying, “We are not with either side. We are for peace.” Meanwhile, Brazilian leader, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told Biden during a meeting that “Brazil is a country of peace. At this moment, we need to find those who want peace, a word that has so far been used very little.”
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said of the idea, “I don’t think sending weapons to prolong a conflict has support in Latin America.”
The Argentinian government gave a similar sentiment when a defense ministry spokesperson said that the country “will not cooperate with the war.”
While the U.S. and its Western allies continue to look for money and weapons to send to Ukraine, Moscow has issued repeated warnings that should Western countries continue to provide weapons and support to Kyiv, they risk becoming directly involved in the conflict.
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As tensions rise between Beijing and Washington over the Chinese high-altitude balloon that the Air Force shot down last week, the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps are conducting exercises in the South China Sea.
According to a statement from the Navy's Seventh Fleet, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group conducted drills on February 11 with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The statement did not say when the exercises started or when they would conclude.
In recent years, the U.S. military has increased its activity in the South China Sea and has formally rejected most of China's claims to the waters. Beijing shares a claim to the South China Sea along with the Phillippines and numerous other Southeast Asian countries.
The U.S. involved itself in the dispute over the waters and, under the Obama administration, began sailing warships near islands in the South China Sea that are controlled by Beijing.
The U.S. has been looking to expand its presence in the region under the Biden administration, and Washington recently signed a deal with the Phillippines, which will give the U.S. access to 4 more military sites in the country.
The current drills come after Beijing declined a call from U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, following the U.S. military shooting down a Chinese balloon in U.S. airspace. The Chinese government maintains that the balloon was a weather balloon, while Washington has claimed that it was a spy device.
While Beijing refused to take Austin's call, U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, canceled a planned trip to China when the balloon was first discovered in U.S. airspace. Since shooting down the Chinese spy balloon, the U.S. military has downed at least two unidentified objects in U.S. airspace, but the White House does not believe the other objects are Chinese balloons.
The Balkan has received eyewitness reports from trusted sources that a missile exploded today over the skies of Romania near a military base outside of Cluj-Napoca in the northwestern part of the country. The explosion shook buildings in nearby Florești. Eyewitnesses report that the missile came from the northwest, in the direction of Poland. No damage has been reported and Romania officially denies any incident took place, but something is clearly amiss.
Earlier today, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, told Ukrainian Pravda that “Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles crossed the state border of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova on 10 February at 10:18. At approximately 10:33, these missiles crossed into Romanian air space. After this, the said air targets re-entered Ukrainian airspace where the borders of the three states meet. At the moment, this target is being monitored, and measures to shoot it down are also being taken. The missile was launched from the Black Sea.”
Volodymir Zelensky then claimed that the rockets represented, “a provocation for NATO and its collective security.” Ukrainian officials added that they had the ability to shoot down the missiles but did not do so because they did not want to endanger civilians in the neighboring countries.
Kiev was clearly engaged in a disinformation campaign to try to prop up fading support for the Zelensky regime. The Ukrainian claims, however, were quickly debunked. “At this moment, we have no indications of a military threat by Russia against Romania or the Republic of Moldova.” Vedant Patel, a U.S. State Department Spokesman.
An official statement from the Romanian Ministry of Defense declared: “The aerial surveillance system of the Romanian Air Force detected on Friday, February 10, an aerial target launched from the Black Sea from a ship of the Russian Federation, near the Crimean Peninsula, most likely a cruise missile, which evolved in the airspace of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and re-entered the Ukrainian airspace without intersecting, at any time, the airspace of Romania. The closest point of the target's trajectory to Romania's airspace was recorded by radar systems approximately 35 kilometers North-East of the border.” The Defense Ministry made no mention of the incident over the skies of Transylvania.
So what can we make of the reported missile explosion over the skies near Cluj-Napoca? Clearly, no Russian missile was involved. If it had been, Romanian and NATO authorities would have raised the alarm and used the incident to strengthen support for Kiev. The missile that exploded over Transylvania was reported to have come from the northwest in the direction of Poland. Are Ukrainian troops there being trained in the use of long-range missiles and was this some sort of training exercise, error, or a deliberate action by the Ukrainian regime to blame Russia for an incident that could be used for propaganda purposes? We do not have the answers, but the refusal of the authorities to even acknowledge the incident speaks volumes.
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According to Ukrainian officials, Friday saw more of the eerily consistent nationwide missile strikes that Russia has been conducting across the country for months. However, there was a noticeable uptick in the number of strikes Russia conducted on Friday with Moscow firing up to 35 S-300 missiles at Zaporizhzhia and the Kharkiv region. The escalated strikes caused additional power outages overnight across the country.
Kyiv has been warning of a new Russian offensive since the end of 2022 and has claimed that hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have been amassing on its border. Friday's increased missile attacks came a day after Serhiy Hayday, the leader of the Luhasnk region in Ukraine said that Moscow was increasing its attacks on that part of the country. Hayday commented that the increased missile strikes were "part of the full-scale offensive that Russia has been planning."
While it has been difficult to assess with accuracy, there have been indications from both sides that Russia has been building up its mobilized reserve forces on Ukraine's eastern border and inside Ukraine itself. A pro-Kremlin, Russian military blogger, Evgeny Poddubny, wrote on his Telegram channel Thursday, "Our units, which were mostly formed from mobilized men, gained experience, which made it possible to increase the stability of the units on the front line." Poddubny went on to eventually admit that Ukrainian forces had also been able to replenish its "depleted units."
At the end of January, Hayday noted that there was an "incredible number" of Russian forces inside eastern Ukraine. Hayday said, "There are huge numbers of them [Russian troops in the Svatove-Kreminna area]. And a very large number of mobilized. And they are constantly being thrown into the offensive - almost all the time."
While the growing number of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine has not yet amounted to much on the battlefield, Hayday noted that Russian troops in the area are on the offensive. He then went on to say of the escalation in his region, "We can conclude that a certain escalation has already begun. And we can say de facto that this is part of the full-scale offensive that Russia has been planning."
While Russia begins to gear up for its much-anticipated winter offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been on a whirlwind diplomatic tour of Europe in an effort to drum up fighter jets and other military support for war-battered Ukraine. His tour has included England, France, and Poland, thus far among other nations. Zelensky has had some success with getting larger-scale weapons and equipment from Ukraine's Western allies, with both Berlin and Washington agreeing to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv at the end of January.
On Thursday, Matt Gaetz will introduce a resolution in the House that calls for the Biden administration to cease U.S. military and financial assistance to Ukraine. The measure also calls for a peace agreement as the war will enter its second year on February 24.
The measure, which was introduced by Gaetz and 10 co-sponsors, calls for the nation to “end its military and financial aid to Ukraine and urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement.”
The resolution points that since the war began when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has been the leading contributor of support to Kyiv with more than $110 billion having been provided in military, financial, and humanitarian aid, which also includes more than $27.4 billion in security assistance.
In January, the Biden administration announced that 31 Abrams M1 tanks would be provided to Ukraine and it has been reported that another $2 billion in aid could be in the works. At the time of that announcement, Biden said, “This is about freedom for Ukraine, freedom everywhere.”
Not only does the resolution outline the extensive list of military equipment that the U.S. has given to Ukraine, but it also cites Pentagon officials who have indicated that the continued donation of munitions has “severely depleted United States stockpiles, weakening United States readiness in the event of conflict.” This is at a time when the UN Chief is warning the world of walking into WWIII.
The measure also estimates that some 40,000 civilians have died in the war and that the nation’s assistance to Ukraine is inadvertently contributing to those deaths.
Discontent has been growing among a sect of Republicans as the Biden administration continues to throw money at a war that is now entering its second year, meanwhile, other issues closer to home would benefit from those resources such as the open southern border, the fentanyl crisis, and processing migrants.
“America is in a state of managed decline, and it will exacerbate if we continue to hemorrhage taxpayer dollars toward a foreign war,” Gaetz said. “We must suspend all foreign aid for the War in Ukraine and demand that all combatants in this conflict reach a peace agreement immediately.”
Gaetz’s co-sponsors for the resolution include Representatives Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Lauren Bobert (R-CO), Paul Gosae (R-AZ), Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA), Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Thomas Massie (R-KY), Mary Miller (R-IL), carry Moore (R-AL), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT).
While Republican leadership has for the most part remained consistent of its support for the continued support and funding of the war in Ukraine with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell saying in December that “providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the No. 1 priority for the United States right now according to most Republicans,” cracks of division have begun to form.
In October, House Leader Kevin McCarthy took a more conservative approach saying that Republicans would not write a “blank check” for Ukraine.
Earlier this week Gaetz aligned with McCarthy and asked the House floor, “How much more for Ukraine? Is there any limit?” he asked. “Which billionth dollar really kicks in the door? Which redline we set will we not later cross?”
China wants Taiwan, an independent democratic island nation off its east coast, to be part of it, and has threatened to take it by force if necessary. While many analysts agree China will invade Taiwan at some point, no one knows when. In this episode of China Uncensored, we look at the prediction one US general made about 2025, why others have predicted different dates, and why Xi Jinping isn't the problem with China's aggressiveness in the Taiwan Strait.
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While the U.S. and Europe have joined forces in an effort to target putting sanctions on Iranian-made drones that are being shipped to Russia, Iran and Russia have agreed to establish a joint drone manufacturing facility in Russia, according to a weekend report from Wall Street Journal.
Iran has been supplying Russia with its kamikaze drones, including the Shahed-136, which Moscow has been using to launch persistent strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure. The drones cost $20,000 to produce, and Iran and Russia now have plans to construct a manufacturing site for the drones inside Russian territory. The new facility would allow Russia to produce an additional 6,000 drones for use in its war against Ukraine.
The deal to build a facility in Russia was reportedly agreed to with Iran in November at the height of Russia’s consistent drone attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Concerns are growing, however, that the new manufacturing site could result in new UAVs. A delegation of high-level Iranian officials visited Russia in January to work out the necessary details to get the site running. Russia and Iran plan to use the new facility to design and build a faster drone that would pose new threats to Ukraine and challenge its air defenses.
The Russian facility is also seen as an attempt to avoid what the Biden administration referred to as its plans to “choke off Iran’s ability to manufacture the drones” as U.S. forces assist “Ukrian’s military to target the sites where the drones are being prepared for launch,” according to statements from U.S. officials.
It is an uphill battle for Ukraine as the air defense systems used to intercept and destroy Iran’s kamikaze drones cost far more than the drones themselves. Now, with Iran moving production of the drones to neighboring Russia and increasing production numbers, protecting its cities and infrastructure will become an even bigger challenge for Kyiv.
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UPDATE 1/3/22 0855 - Chinese "balloon" in U.S. airspace came from China is of a "civilian nature", China's foreign ministry claims.
A Chinese spy balloon has been detected in the airspace over Montana and is being monitored by the government. The identification of the balloon concerned Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) enough that he wrote of the "concerning event" in a letter to the Department of Defense (DoD). Daines went on to note that Montana airspace includes "Malmstrom Air Force Base (AFB) and the United States' intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fields."
The senator also expressed that given "the serious nature of the event" he was "requesting a full security briefing from the administration on this situation."
"It is vital to establish the flight path of this balloon, any compromised U.S. national security assets, and all telecom or IT infrastructure on the ground within the U.S. that this spy balloon was utilizing," Dained added.
"As you know, Montana plays a vital national security role by housing nuclear missile silos at Malmstrom AFB," the senator concluded.
Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters Thursday, "The United States government has detected and is tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now."
"The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground," Ryder added.
While such high-altitude balloons operate at 15-22 miles above the earth, well above the altitude of commercial air traffic, the military has taken "custody" of the balloon and deployed stealth fighter jets and other aircraft to observe it.
The spy balloon is estimated to be the size of 3 buses and military commanders have advised President Biden against shooting down the balloon for fear of falling debris injuring civilians on the ground.
Canada's Defense Ministry is also reportedly monitoring a "potential second incident" but did not provide further details.
As for the balloon in Montana, the military intends to continue monitoring it and will continue to take measures to protect any sensitive data from being intercepted by the balloon.
Following a drone strike on a military facility in Isfahan on Sunday, the Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN sent a warning to the U.S. stating that any military action against Iran would be taken as a declaration of war and would be met with retribution.
On Tuesday, the Permanent Mission to the UN told Newsweek, "In Iran's perspective, the use of the military option at any level means U.S. entry into the war. For now, Iran considers such a possibility to be weak." The mission went on to say that the U.S. will be responsible for the "consequences for the region and the globe," if the U.S. "miscalculates and launches a war."
Meanwhile, Washington has denied involvement in the drone attack, which is believed to have been instigated by the Israelis. A Pentagon spokesperson said, "We've seen the press reports but can confirm that no U.S. military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation but have nothing further to provide."
On January 29, the Iranian Defense Ministry said in a statement that its air defense forces had stopped a drone attack on a military facility in Isafahan. According to the statement, "One of teh drones was hit by the... air defense, and the ohter two were caught in defense traps and blew up... Fortunately, this unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life adn caused minor damage to the workshop's roof."
The moment the facility's defense systems destroyed one of the drones can be seen in videos on social media. The Defense Ministry's statement added that the attack "has not affected our installations and mission... and such blind measures will not have an impact onthe continuation of the country's progress."
While The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli drones attacked a weapons systemes factory in Isfahan. The Iranian Defense Ministry, however, offered no information as to who it suspected is behind the strike. Despite, the Iranian Defense Ministry's claims, it is likely that Israel was behind the attack, given that it has previously been found to have sabotagged the Islamic Republic before.
In light of the attack, Tehran has confirmed that it will continue to make progress on its "peaceful nuclear program," while Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian condemned the "cowardly drone attack."
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Germany has recently come to the forefront of European countries causing escalations with Russia when it began pressuring Washington and NATO allies to send tanks to Ukraine last month. Being well aware of its precarious position with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Germany is now in a race to drastically increase its defense spending and arm itself against possible Russian attacks, including spending $18 billion on a nationwide missile defense shied.
It should be noted that less than a year ago, Germany’s military was struggling to meet its commitment to NATO and had an entire battalion of Puma tanks fail drills and be deemed unfit for action in the NATO Rapid Reaction Force (NRF). The German military is also known to be underfunded and lacking resources. Now, it’s giving away the handful of operational tanks it does have to Ukraine. The German military should be helping itself before it helps Kyiv.
As part of Germany’s recent about-face regarding its defense spending, the country is now in talks with multiple defense manufacturers to have a multi-layered, anti-missile shield built that could cost as much as €17 billion ($18.5 billion).
Specifically, the government is negotiating a contract with Bavarian-based manufacturer Diehl Defence to purchase up to 8 IRS-T anti-missile systems for a cost of €2 billion to €3 billion. The 8 IRS-T anti-missile systems are expected to be just the first layer of a more complex multi-layered system. One IRS-T battery is capable of intercepting fighter jets, inbound cruise missiles, and drones and can fire missiles that travel over 40 km.
Germany also supplied Kyiv with the first 4 IRS-T air defense systems it received in October, keeping a promise it had made with Ukraine to provide the systems to protect its cities from drone attacks. It should also be noted that Germany does not currently own any IRS-T systems.
Berlin is finally waking up to the realization that it has a woefully inadequate military. While Chancellor Olaf Scholz is doing everything possible to increase defense spending and build up Germany’s military, it comes as concern is mounting that Russia’s war in Ukraine could spread both West and deeper into Europe. Germany’s last-minute effort to build its military up before it gets dragged into a conflict with Russia is a classic example of too little, too late.
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While the U.S. used the “domino theory” with success in order to gain support from the American public during the Vietnam War, former UK Defense Minister Sir Gerald Howarth is attempting to use the same argument to justify his reasoning for inserting NATO troops in Ukraine.
Despite most of the European and American populations being against engaging in war with Russia, established officials seem to be intent on pushing the issue.
NATO and the West’s willingness to no longer send only defensive weapons but now also tanks and longer-range rockets will be seen by Russia as an act of aggression, to which it will respond with more force. That act will then be seen by NATO as a call to escalate things further.
The former Defense Minister does admit that alternative media has been saying for a while that Kyiv’s efforts have come to a halt without additional support from NATO forces, as military funding and weapons can only go so far without additional troops to back them up.
Howarth suggests in his commentary that NATO cannot allow Russia to succeed in its invasion and takeover of Ukraine as it will then embolden Putin to attack other neighboring countries. While there is no solid evidence to support Howarth’s argument, it seems that NATO officials are working to gain favor with the public regarding inserting troops in Ukraine.
In essence, Howarth’s argument seems to be that the West will end up at war with Russia regardless of how fast or slow the West and NATO proceed, so NATO and its allies might as well rip off the proverbial band-aid and take the next big step that many fear will lead to a third World War.
Hosts L Todd Wood and Christine Dolan speak with LTG Michael Flynn on the high-level agenda of the Ukraine war.
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During a press conference Monday to discuss an upcoming trip to Poland, President Biden announced that the U.S. will not be sending F-16 jets to Ukraine, despite growing pressure from some European countries and reportedly from some Pentagon officials. When asked by reporters if he would provide Ukraine with F-16 jets, he answered with a simple “no.”
However, Biden also said that he would not send tanks to Ukraine in March 2022, and yet last week he approved a shipment of not only M1 Abrams tanks, but also Bradley Fighting Vehicles. It is likely that this “no” is tentative.
When asked about sending tanks to Ukraine last March, Biden said, “The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews – just understand, don’t kid yourself, no matter what y’all say, that’s called World War III.”
While Biden claims the U.S. will not send jets to Kyiv, the Ukrainian president’s office is saying that it is already working on expedited negotiations with Washington regarding possibly being supplied with long-range missiles and jets by the U.S. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that sending jets is not an option, although he was instrumental last week in the decision of both Washington and Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine.
On Saturday, a Zelensky advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak told The Associated Press that “fast-track” discussions are taking place that focus on Ukraine obtaining both jets and long-range missiles “to drastically curtail the key tool of the Russian army” by giving Ukraine the ability to strike weapons warehouses that are far from the frontlines.
Meanwhile, reports emerged from U.S. media over the weekend that there is a growing movement within the Pentagon to pressure the Biden administration into approving sending jets to Kyiv.
According to Politico, “A contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian missile drone attacks, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.”
“As Ukraine prepares to launch a new offensive to retake territory in the spring, the campaign inside the Defense Department for fighter jets is gaining momentum, according to a DoD official and two other people involved in the discussions,” the report continued. It went on to quote a defense official who said, “I don’t think we are opposed” with regard to sending F-16s to Ukraine. The senior DoD official spoke on a condition of anonymity and emphasized that there has not been a final decision made.
The White House has only commented thus far to say that the U.S. would be discussing fighter jets “very carefully” with Ukraine and its allies. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said on Thursday, “We have not ruled in or out any specific systems.”
While Germany could stand in the way, it should be noted that the Germans gave in fairly quickly to pressure from its NATO allies regarding the tank issues last week. In a recent interview, Scholz said, “I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems.”
“The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all,” Scholz added.
While both the U.S. and Germany currently do not support sending F-16s to Kyiv, talks are allegedly in the works with Ukraine, and as we have seen, both Biden and Scholz can change always change their minds.
Host L Todd Wood speaks to 'Alex' on the inside in Kyiv as to what is happening with American aid.
In an effort to decrease Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund the war in Ukraine that Russia started in February 2022, the U.S. and other Western countries have imposed heavy sanctions on Russia. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has lost access to roughly half of its gold and foreign currency reserves. Russian supply chains and economic connections between firms are also undergoing a slow reconfiguration process. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has also lost access to the European energy market due to the EU’s oil embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil. Russia has been forced to sell its crude for $47 a barrel, which includes a discount of $30-40 depending on the purchaser. Next week, an EU embargo on Russian oil will take effect as well.
Unfortunately, despite all the embargos, sanctions, and other restrictions, Putin still has enough funds to pursue his war in Ukraine for at least the next 3 years unless something drastic changes.
Russia has ample reserves of gold and Chinese yuan, and even if the Kremlin is forced to cut spending in the future, military and social spending will not be affected as they are ring-fenced.
To protect its military expenditure, Russia’s budget is designed so that military spending does not depend on volatile oil and gas income but is rather backed by more “predictable” income streams. The Russian Finance Ministry anticipates the ring-fenced expenditures will need to increase by 0.5% of GDP to roughly 17.2 rubles (11.5% of GDP) and then hold at that level through 2025. The increase will take the military expenditure up to 9.5 trillion rubles and social spending to 7.3 trillion rubles.
“The economy is functioning: taxes are collected, businesses are adapting,” a Russian federal official said last week as Putin promised that the military expenditure would not see a reduction. “We still have a piggy bank,” the official added. Should there be a financial shock in the future, it is expected that the Kremlin would cut infrastructure spending and use quasi-state institutions, like development banks, to cover the cost of infrastructure projects.
Russia currently has a surplus of $227.4 billion from 2022, and most expect it to have a surplus this year, despite all the sanctions from the West. One of Russia’s continued exports is its hydrocarbons. However, income from those exports is expected to dip substantially.
Predictions for Russia’s economic future are fairly inaccurate, given that many official forecasts are not accurate. The Russian state budget currently includes 1.7 trillion rubles of revenue from the exportation of 125 billion cubic meters of gas. However, those figures are inaccurate as the macro forecasts do not account for the Nordstream pipeline explosion and loss of revenue as a result. The pipeline explosion occurred right before the budget was submitted in September. “If 90 billion cubic meters [of gas] are exported, that’s already a good result,” said Alexander Isakov from Bloomberg Economics.
In addition to inaccurate export estimates, the budget also does not account for the caps on oil and gas prices or the fact that Russia may agree to discounts on gas and payment deferrals for Turkey in 2023. Loko Bank analyst Dmitry Polevoy wrote, “I value them at $29 billion and $42 billion respectively – we are talking about $18 billion.”
On Monday, Russia extended a deferred payment of insurance premiums until 2024. The deficit was 2.1 trillion rubles more than expected in December. One of the reasons for that is that it needed to pay off 772 billion rubles in deferred insurance premiums. It is unclear how the Kremlin spent the remaining 1.3 trillion rubles.
The deferment on insurance premiums this month means that those costs will not be reflected in the budget until 2024. As a result, the deficit is likely to be 2.3% of GDP. It is officially expected to be 2%, based on oil prices of $70 a barrel, which, as mentioned above, is an inaccurate figure.
According to estimates from Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the IIF, a decrease of $10 in the average price of oil over the course of this year would cost Russia $15 billion. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics has a more conservative estimate showing that if Russian crude costs an average of $50 a barrel, then the deficit will increase to about 3% of GDP.
The deficit will not affect Putin’s ability to fund the war, however, because Russia has enough reserves of yuan, euros, and gold to cover the deficit for the next 3 years. Bloomberg has also estimated that the sale of foreign currency could increase from 55 billion rubles this month to 120 billion rubles in February. While unlikely, if oil prices fell as low as $25 a barrel, Russia would burn through its reserve of yuan in a year.
Even if there was a sharp decline in oil and gas revenue and Russia emptied its other financial reserves, military expenditure can still be taken from tax revenues. If the situation were to become that dire, then investment in economic development would likely also be transferred to quasi-state institutions, and Russians would suffer the consequences.
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Russia's state TASS has announced that the Russian navy will be participating along with China and South Africa in joint naval exercises beginning in February off the coast of South Africa.
Three weeks prior to the announcement of the joint exercises, the Russian frigate 'Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov' left port armed with Russia's newly developed Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles for deployment in the Atlantic.
It is believed that the Zircon hypersonic missile can travel at nine times the speed of sound with a range of over 620 miles. The Russian frigate is expected to cross the Mediterranean before heading to the Russian port of Tartus and then heading south.
According to the TASS report, "'Admiral Gorshkov'... will go to the logistic support point in Syria's Tartus, and then take part in joint naval exercises with the Chinese and South African navies."
The joint exercises have also been confirmed by the South African National Defense Force, which has said the drills will take place between February 17 and 26 and will be located off the port cities of Richards Bay and Durban. The Defense Force also described the goal of the drills as being "to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia, and China."
The upcoming exercises will be the second time the 3 countries have held joint drills since a 2019 exercise.
It should also be noted that the timing of the drills coincides with the one-year anniversary of the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Given that South Africa is a U.S. ally, the country is coming under a great deal of criticism for hosting the exercises as well as for allowing Russian warships to enter its ports. South Africa is also one of roughly 3 dozen countries to abstain from a UN vote in 2022 that condemned Russia's annexation of 4 eastern Ukrainian territories.
A statement released by David Feldman, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa, said, "We note with concern" South Africa's plan to move ahead with the joint drills "even as Moscow continues its brutal and unlawful invasion of Ukraine."
"We encourage South Africa to cooperate militarily with fellow democracies that share our mutual commitment to human rights and the rule of law," Feldman added.
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After weeks of Germany refusing to allow its Western allies to send their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Berlin has finally authorized Poland to send its German-made Leopard tanks to Kyiv to fight the Russian invasion.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told LCI television after a Franco-German meeting in Paris on Sunday, “If we are asked the question, then we will not stand in the way. We know how important these tanks are, and this is why we are discussing this now with our partners. We need to make sure people’s lives are saved, and Ukraine’s territory is liberated.”
For months, Kyiv has been pleading with the U.S. and its Western allies to send Western-made tanks to the frontlines to assist its effort to resist Russian forces. While all Western allies have been fairly reluctant to provide tanks for fears of an escalation with Russia, Germany has been one of the strongest opposers.
While Berlin is still refusing to send its own tanks to Ukraine amid mounting pressure from Kyiv, Poland has indicated that it is ready to deliver 14 Leopard tanks to Ukrainian troops. However, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had said that he was waiting for a “clear statement” from Germany as to whether or not Western countries with the tanks would be allowed to send them.
Morawiecki has been critical of Germany’s resistance to not only provide its own tanks to Ukraine but also of its hesitancy to allow its allies to do the same calling the previous decision “unacceptable.” He also told the PAP agency that “Innocent people are dying every day.”
Prime ministers from three Baltic states released a joint statement Saturday urging Germany “to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday there was “no alternative” other than for the West to provide tanks to his country.
Last week, Germany indicated that it would not allow other countries to provide Leopard tanks unless the U.S. sent its M1 Abrams tanks as well. The U.S. declined to send tanks citing difficulties with maintenance and training.
While Germany has given Poland the green light to send its Leopard 2 tanks if it chooses to, Baerbock indicated in her comments on Sunday that Poland has yet to make a formal request to Berlin.
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While the U.S. Treasury is taking extreme measures to avert a crisis as the June debt ceiling deadline approaches, the Biden administration has promised another $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. On Thursday, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced the aid package and vowed that the U.S. “will stand united with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
The current aid package comes after Congress passed a massive $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that granted $45 billion to Ukraine. The spending bill brought the total amount of U.S. aid provided to Ukraine to over a staggering $110 billion.
Congress added to the omnibus bill an additional $8 billion to the $37 billion in aid that the Biden administration had requested.
In a press release, Blinken said, “Pursuant to a delegation of authority from the President, I am authorizing our 30th drawdown of U.S. arms and equipment for Ukraine since August 2021.”
Blinken added:
This assistance package will provide Ukraine with hundreds of additional armored vehicles, including Stryker armored personnel carriers, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled vehicles. The package also includes critical additional air defense support for Ukraine, including more Avenger air defense systems, and surface to air missiles, as well as additioanl munitions for NASAMS that the United States has previously provided. The package also contains night vision devices, small arms ammunition, and other items to support Ukraine as it bravely defends its people, its sovereignty, and its territorial integrity.
Blinken went on to say that the U.S. “continues to rally the world to support Ukraine” and commended the “incredible solidarity from our allies and partners” in assisting Ukraine.
“Russia alone could end this war today. Until it does so, we will stand United with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Blinken added.
In a letter expressing concerns about the continuously increasing aid packages for Ukraine, Republican Congressmen Sen J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) wrote, “Taken together, the four Ukraine supplemental spending bills passed since the escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict in February of 2022 amount to arguably the fourth-largest discretionary appropriations bill. Further, multiple DOD Inspectors General advisories have raised questions about DOD’s budget execution practices in regards to these funds.”
The lawmakers also demanded a “full crosscutting report” of all the “U.S. government-wide expenditures for Ukraine and ‘countries impacted by the situation in Ukraine’ since February 24, 2022.”
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Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley visited a military base in Germany on Monday to inspect the expanded U.S. training of Ukrainian forces.
Milley arrived at the base for the second day of training on a visit that sends a strong message to Moscow that the U.S. will not back down in its support of Ukraine in its war with Russia.
American advisors are training 600 Ukrainian troops on armored vehicles, tanks, a variety of weapons, and combat techniques. The training is expected to be a 5-week rotation at the Grafenwoehr training area.
Milley told commanders in a briefing that “this is not a run-of-the-mill rotation. This is one of those moments in time where if you want to make a difference, this is it.”
According to the Associated Press, strict press controls were in place to protect the identities of personnel present, saying, “The reporters were allowed to follow Milley and watch his interactions with Ukrainian and U.S. troops and commanders, but were not allowed to report specific conversations with the Ukraine forces or take any photos or video.”
It was also noted that “The restrictions reflect ongoing U.S. concerns about escalating Russian anger over the West’s involvement in the war or triggering a wider conflict.”
The training of Ukrainian forces is not new, with a limited number of Ukrainian troops receiving instruction from U.S. and allied trainers at Grafenwoehr prior to the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The training program will include field work along with classroom instruction that will begin with small squads and will eventually include larger units. The training will peak with a battalion and headquarters unit working together on a complex combat exercise.
Due to the Pentagon’s involvement with training Ukrainian forces, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated last month that NATO is a “direct” participant in the war. Lavrov told reporters at a press briefing, “You shouldn’t say that the US and NATO aren’t taking part in this war. You are directly participating in it.”
Lavrov added, “And not just by providing weapons but also by training personnel. You are training their military on your territory, on the territories of Britain, Germany, Italy, and other countries.”
On Monday, Russia and Belarus launched joint aerial exercises in Belarusian airspace. The exercises are expected to last a full 2 weeks, ending on February 1. It is a worrisome sign for neighboring Ukraine as its war with Russia enters a full year next month.
Due to accusations from Kyiv that Belarus is about to join Russia in its war against Ukraine, Minsk called the drills “defensive in nature” in an attempt to downplay joint exercises that are being taken as an escalation by Ukraine. Minsk has also referred to the exercises as “technical drills.”
An Al Jazeera correspondent in Moscow noted that ” We all know that last month President Vladimir Putin went to Minsk, where he met his counterpart [Alexander] Lukashenko, where they agreed that Russia will provide the Belarusian air force with training to be able to use what they described as aircraft that could carry unconventional weapons.”
The correspondent added, “there are many concerns with the role Belarus is playing with respect to the war, whether this is going to have [an] impact.”
While there have been numerous reports over the last few weeks of heavy Russian equipment being transported by train into Belarus, the Pentagon said last week that it had yet to observe any Russian troop movements in Belarus that would suggest that Moscow and Minsk are planning new attacks on Ukraine.
The joint air force exercises being conducted over the next two weeks are set to include joint air patrols, airborne operations, action to support ground forces, transport flights, and air reconnaissance. It is unknown how many aircraft will be involved in the drills.
In anticipation of the joint exercises, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko visited a military base where Russian troops are stationed 10 days ago.
At the time of Lukashenko’s visit, a defense ministry official said, “At this stage, units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are ready to carry out tasks as intended.” Lukashenko has also previously referred to Moscow’s war in Ukraine as part of Belarus’s “common cause” with Russia.
While the buildup of forces in Belarus for the joint exercises holds the attention of NATO and its Western allies, Kyiv has maintained a position that Russia is using Belarus as a staging ground to launch drones in its continued attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Host L Todd Wood discusses the latest in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Lt Col "Lou" Michaels (USAF, Ret) will join; he is a former instructor at the USAF Special Operations School and Russia expert.
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In a move that is sure to further anger China, Taiwan's Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday that some of its military officers have been sent to Italy to attend a NATO war college.
According to Taiwanese air force officer Lt. Col. Wu Bong-yeng, he was sent in 2021 to the NATO Defense College in Rome for a 6-month course that he insisted was purely academic.
Wu added, "This was an academic exchange, not a military exchange. Of course, they were very curious about Taiwan." According to Wu, he studied the same academic curriculum as officers from NATO countries and the Taiwanese Defense Ministry confirmed that other officers attended the war college as well.
While Taiwan has a history of cooperating with the U.S., it is rare for the island nation to interact with other foreign militaries. The announcement of the war college activities comes after NATO announced in its updated 2022 Strategic Concept document that China poses "systematic challenges" to the military alliance.
It was first announced in 2020 that NATO was closely monitoring China and that the alliance would strengthen its Indo-Pacific partnerships with other nations. Since that announcement, Germany, Britain, and France have joined the U.S. in sending warships into waters near China.
While the U.S. and its allies have been working to increase relations with Taiwan in recent years, China views the measures as an assault on the one-China policy, which has resulted in increased Chinese military activity and shows of force in the waters and skies around Taiwan.
PBS NewsHour recently ran a video promoting continued American involvement in the Middle East, to protect the Syrian Kurds along the Turkish border.
AFP is not taking a stance on this subject but we do mean to raise the question. American troops fought alongside the Kurds in recent years against ISIS, and many veterans feel loyalty to Kurdish forces.
Russian forces have just suffered what may be their single biggest loss of the war in an attack, after a Ukrainian strike killed multiple dozens, or possibly hundreds, of newly mobilized troops in the east of the country. Moscow is now pointing to a US role in the devastating attack.
"Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka," The Wall Street Journal reports of the attack in Russian-occupied Donbas.
The defense ministry confirmed that 63 Russian troops died in the blast, saying that a wave of HIMARS rockets delivering "high-explosive warheads" struck the facility that housed the troops...
To read more visit Zero Hedge.
Ukraine has a new Western backer. It’s not a nation-state, or a military contractor. It’s the financial firm BlackRock.
Ukraine announced Wednesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a video teleconference with BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink. The pair apparently struck a deal to coordinate investment efforts to rebuild the war-torn nation.
A readout of the meeting on the Ukrainian president’s website boasted BlackRock’s involvement, calling the firm “one of the world's leading investment managers” and noted that it “manages client assets worth about 8 trillion dollars.”
“Zelenskyy and Larry Fink agreed to focus in the near term on coordinating the efforts of all potential investors and participants in the reconstruction of our country, channelling investment into the most relevant and impactful sectors of the Ukrainian economy,” the readout claimed.
To read more visit American Conservative.
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The State Department announced this week that it has approved the sale of $180 million worth of arms for Taiwan pending Congressional approval. The order is mostly comprised of Volcano anti-tank systems. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has said that the sale should take approximately a month to complete and that the volcano mine systems would increase the country’s “asymmetric warfare” capabilities.
The announcement of the sale came days after China sent 30 aircraft into Taiwan’s airspace Monday in the largest show of force that China has conducted thus far. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry called the US’s sale of military assets to the country the “cornerstone of maintaining regional stability and peace.” The Defense Ministry cited China’s military exercises as the reason for the buildup of anti-tank systems, saying, “The Chinese Communist Party’s frequent military activities near Taiwan have posted severe military threats to us.”
American companies Northrop Grumman and Oshkosh Corporation are listed as the principal contractors for the Volcano anti-tank mine systems to be sent to Taiwan.
The purchase of the anti-tank mine system is part of Taiwan’s efforts to step up its capabilities to protect its shores from a possible Chinese invasion using amphibious landing craft.
After multiple shows of force from the Chinese PLA in recent weeks, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen vowed to increase the country’s civil defense systems saying, “The more preparations we make, the less likely there will be rash attempts of aggression. The more united we are, the stronger and safer Taiwan would become.”
The massive show of force on Monday appears to be retaliation for the US including $10 billion in loans in its 2023 National Defense Authorization Act for Taiwan to purchase US-made weapons and equipment. China has made it clear that it will keep pressure on Taiwan by conducting military exercises and drills near the island as well as sending aircraft and warships across the Taiwan Straight median line.
According to a report by investigative journalist Jack Murphy that was released Sunday, the CIA has been using the intelligence services of a European NATO country to conduct sabotage attacks in Russian territory since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The report cites multiple unnamed former US intelligence and military officials.
While the report states that no US personnel are on the ground in Russia, it does confirm that the operations are being directed by the CIA with the use of an ally’s intelligence which adds a second layer of plausible deniability. That added layer of deniability is a large part of why President Biden approved the operations, according to a former US special operations official.
Murphy did not name the NATO ally whose intelligence services the US is working with in the report because “doing so might endanger the operational security of cells that are still operational inside of Russia.”
According to Murphy’s report, the covert operation in Russia took years to plan. Two former military officials confirmed that the NATO ally’s intelligence service had hidden a cache of explosives and other gear in Russia over a decade ago and that some of it have been used recently.
A former US special operations official said that the CIA did not get involved in Russia until 2014. The first sleeper cells directed by both the CIA and the NATO ally’s intelligence service were in 2016. More sleeper cells that are directed by both agencies have entered Russia since.
The NATO country’s spy service provided the operatives and gave them cover stories to explain why they were in Russia along with the necessary documentation to support the stories. The NATO ally activated the sleeper cells around the time that Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24 and the cells were immediately ready to take orders regarding targets to strike.
While it is unclear how many attacks the sleeper cells have carried out thus far, there have been numerous unexplained explosions at Russian railroads, military installations, and powerplants since the invasion of Ukraine. Murphy’s report indicated that the cells could have been behind a fire at the research institute of Russia’s Aerospace Defense Forces in April, which killed more than 20 people.
The kind of sabotage operations that the CIA is directing cannot be executed without a presidential finding. Former President Barack Obama signed a finding in 2016 allowing covert operations against Russia due to unproven allegations that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.
The finding Obama signed allows for cyberweapons to be planted in Russia’s infrastructure, which is the digital equivalent of a bomb that could be detonated if things escalated between the US and Russia in the future.
There is some debate about what Obama’s finding permitted, with one former CIA official saying that the finding allowed for sabotage operations against Russia while different former officials have said that the current operations would require either a new finding or an amendment to Obama’s finding.
While a spokesperson for the CIA denied the report’s allegations, it should be noted that the CIA legally has the authority to deny the existence of its covert operations.
While Ukraine’s recent strikes inside Russian territory could lead to a nuclear escalation between NATO and Russia, the CIA directing acts of sabotage in Russia could easily escalate the situation to the same level.
According to Murphy, his report “went through a vigorous fact-checking process and was deemed newsworthy,” adding that he published the report to inform the public, saying, “Indeed, the Russian government knows perfectly well who is sponsoring these sabotage strikes. Moreover, the intelligence community wants them to know. The only party left in the dark is the public at large, left unaware of the shadow war taking place behind the scenes.”
Murphy published the report on his personal website. He offered the following explanation as to why it was not published by a media outlet. “While working with editors at mainstream publications, I was asked to do things that were illegal and unethical in one instance, and in another instance, I felt that a senior CIA official was able to edit my article by making off-the-record statements before he leaked a story to The New York Times to undermine this piece,” Murphy wrote at the end of the report.
The situation in northern Kosovo continues to devolve, as Albanian officials in Prishtina refused to allow Patriarch Porfirije of Serbia entry into Kosovo and Metohija, demanding that the Patriarch distance himself from the Serbs on the barricades as a condition of entry into the province.
By refusing to allow the leader of the Serbian Orthodox Church to go to the Patriarchate of Peć, the ancient seat of the Serbian Patriarchs, to prepare for the Orthodox celebration of Christmas, the government in Prishtina is escalating the conflict.
In a statement on his Instagram account, the Serbian Patriarch wrote: “As the Patriarch, I was headed to the original and most significant seat of my church. As a priest, I was headed there to be with my people ahead of the happiest holiday. As a citizen, I was headed to my house, to my home. From the moment when I set off on this journey, I have been repeating this: wherever I have been outside of Kosovo and Metohija, I have been in a foreign land. I am only at home in Kosovo and Metohija. The doors to my home have been locked to me today and I am praying to God to unlock the hearts of those who have shut them, and for the love of Christmas and the birth of the Savior to touch the minds and consciences of all people.”
In response to Prishtina’s actions against the Orthodox Church, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić met with Patriarch Porfirije to discuss the situation in Kosovo and Metohija. Several Serbian media outlets have reported that Vučić asked Patriarch Porfirije to give his blessing to defend Kosovo and Metohija just like Prince Lazar did before the famous Battle of Kosovo in 1389.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić ordered that Serbian forces be placed on the highest level of combat readiness. Serbian Interior Minister, Bratislav Gašić, acting on instructions from President Vučić ordered that “all measures be taken to protect the Serbian people in Kosovo.” Gašić added, “I have ordered the full combat readiness of all units of the ministry… as soon as they are placed under the command of the Chief of General Staff and occupy the designated positions operational plan.”
Serbian Defense Minister Miloš Vučević explained that Vučić’s order is aimed at protecting the territorial integrity of Serbia: “It raises us to the highest level of action to be carried out by the Serbian Army, protecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia and protecting all citizens of Serbia and preventing terrorism and terror against Serbs wherever they live.”
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Russian media reported Monday morning that a Ukrainian drone had attacked an airbase deep inside Russian territory, killing 3 soldiers. According to reports, the drone was intercepted before debris rained down on the base.
The drone was over Engels airbase in the Saratov region of southern Russia, more than 600km from the Ukrainian border. The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement saying, “On December 26, at around 01:35 Moscow time, a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down at low altitude while approaching the Engels military airfield in the Saratov region.”
The statement continued, “As a result of the drone’s wreckage falling, three Russian technicians who were at the airfield were fatally injured.” According to the Defense Ministry, no aircraft were damaged in the attack, and the governor of Saratov, Roman Busargin, told locals that there is currently “absolutely no threat” to the region.
Due to the panic caused by the Ukrainian drone, Busargin told the public that “All stories about the evacuation from the city are blatant lies, created far from the borders of our country.”
Not only was the drone attack one of the only times that Russian soldiers have been killed on a base far away from the frontlines. Engels is known to house advanced hypersonic and nuclear-capable bombers.
Despite Russian reports that the drone was intercepted by an anti-air defense system, there is speculation that the drone made a direct impact on the base but that Russia is altering the narrative to deny that the Ukrainian operation was successful. Due to the speculation, Busargin cautioned residents not to spread “fake information.”
The drone attack Monday is the second time in 10 months that Engels air base has been attacked by Ukrainian forces.
Despite multiple videos showing what is alleged to be the moment of impact, Russian officials have claimed that the drone was intercepted and shot down “at low altitude” and that the explosions were caused by falling debris hitting the ground.
Earlier this month, on December 5, Ukrainian forces launched simultaneous drone attacks on both Engels and another air base in Ryazan in western Russia, which also hosts nuclear-capable strategic bombers. The previous attack on Engels was the deepest Ukrainians had attacked inside Russian territory.
Ukraine advancing its assaults further into Russian territory could cause Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war and expand its attacks on Ukraine. Only recently has Putin begun to refer to the conflict as a “war” having previously only used the term “special military operation” to refer to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. As things escalate, fears are mounting that Belarus will officially join Russia’s war by sending in ground troops.
With a building string of successes in Crimea and now Russia, it is likely that Ukrainian forces will continue to launch strikes inside Russian territory. Ukraine has also been consistently receiving longer-range weapons from both the U.S. and NATO, which will allow them to launch assaults further from the front line. U.S. intelligence has also been stepping up to assist Ukraine with identifying and locating targets. While it is unclear whether or not the U.S. assisted with the drone attack at Engels, it is a possibility.
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