Sandboxx writes that artificial intelligence (AI) is at the center of a technological revolution in anti-submarine warfare, powered by advances in sensors plus the technology and ubiquity of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs); these advances could upend nuclear deterrence as we know it.

The article describes technological advances in which sensors are no longer limited to being mostly acoustic. Advances would allow tracking the effects of a submarine moving through the water (e.g., subtle ripples, temperature gradients, magnetic field disturbances, vibrations in undersea cables). In addition, networked and AI-empowered USVs are multiplying. Over all of this, AI would add analytical speed, predictive power, and the ability to synthesize huge quantities and varied streams of data at speeds that human brains cannot replicate.

Sandboxx included a reference with much more discussion of these new technologies [See: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ai-could-leave-subs-with-few-places-to-hide/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mil-ebb]. The discussion included this prediction: “By the 2030s, the world’s oceans may become as transparent to sensors as the skies became to radar in the 20th century.”

Technological advances like these could lead to substantial changes in America’s current nuclear deterrence posture, which is a Triad of land-based missiles in silos, bombers on bases, and submarines armed with ballistic missiles at sea. That Triad depends significantly on the undetectability of submerged submarines, which could retaliate with many missiles if our land-based missiles and bombers were to be seriously degraded by a nuclear attack (e.g., from China, Russia).

Fortunately, the Triad concept is an arrangement in which two elements can be strengthened to compensate for an individual-element weakness. If the submarine element were to be weakened by detection-technology advances, deploying mobile land-based missiles and adding a homeland ballistic-missile-defense overlay would improve the survivability of our Triad’s land-based components.

Notably, technological advances in submarine detection would seriously undercut misguided proposals of doing away with the Triad and depending on a submarine-dependent Dyad (such as bombers and submarines) or a submarine-only Monad. Increased detectability of submarines would gravely weaken the Dyad and disqualify completely the Monad.

The entire Sandboxx article is here [New advances in submarine detection could upend nuclear deterrence as we know it | Sandboxx].