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In a show of appreciation to Slovakia for sending Kyiv Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets, the U.S. has offered to help Bratislava finance the purchase of several attack helicopters and Hellfire missiles.
According to Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad, the deal would be for the U.S. to provide $660 million in financing toward the $1 billion cost of purchasing 12 Bell AH-1Z attack helicopters, 500 AGM-114 Hellfire II missiles, and training for Slovak troops. Slovakia would be responsible for the remaining $340 million.
In a separate show of support, the EU plans to compensate Slovakia with $213 million for giving the MiG-29s to Ukraine. While the offer is still being considered, Nad acknowledged that receiving the helicopters would “significantly increase the defense capability of Slovakia.”
Without the MiG-29s that Slovakia sent to Kyiv, the country does not have an air force and is currently relying on Poland and the Czech Republic to monitor its airspace. While Slovakia signed an agreement in 2018 to purchase 14 U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, the new combat aircraft are not expected to be delivered until 2024, leaving the country very vulnerable in the interim.
The offer to help Slovakia purchase attack helicopters indicates that Washington had a hand in Slovakia’s decision to send its 13 MiG-29s to Ukraine – a decision that came after Poland announced that it would be sending its own MiG-29s to Kyiv.
As a result of the deals with Ukraine for the jets, Poland and Slovakia are now the first NATO members to provide Ukraine with fighter jets. A move that is sure to be seen as escalatory by Moscow and the Kremlin.
While a year ago, in March 2022, the Pentagon was staunchly against Poland sending its MiG-29s to Kyiv because officials thought that Russia would see it as NATO directly entering the war, those concerns have clearly faded as NATO has consistently become more involved in the defense of Ukraine over the past year.
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On Tuesday, the U.S. Army opened its first permanent garrison on NATO's "eastern flank" at Camp Kosciuszko in Poland. NATO's eastern border stretches from the Baltics to the Black Sea and is comprised of 8 countries, all of which are former members of the Warsaw Pact or the USSR. Now, the U.S. Army's V Corps will have a permanent presence in the region.
According to comments from the V Corps' commanding general, Lt. Gen. John Kolasheski, the garrison represents Washington's deepened military commitment to Eastern Europe. "The relationship of the U.S. and Poland serves as an example of the deepening ties throughout the alliance," Kolasheski said before adding, "today's activation ceremony is a tangible reminder of the growth in our relationship."
During the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, many Western leaders reassured Russia that NATO would not establish bases in Eastern Europe or expand its borders into former USSR states. All subsequent U.S. presidents since George H.W. Bush made those promises to Moscow have violated that vow and expanded NATO's border ever closer to Russia's.
The garrison was described as "historic" by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, who added that Warsaw has been "striving for this for years - for this word 'permanent' - and it has now become fact."
Błaszczak concluded that "this is a historic moment, a sign that the United States is committed to Poland and NATO, and that we are united in the face of Russian aggression."
Given that the U.S. only has 2 officers currently stationed at Camp Kosciuszko and 200 additional troops that rotate in and out of the base, with the Pentagon having already kept about 10,000 troops in Poland, Artur Kacprzyk, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, claimed that the significance of the new garrison "is primarily symbolic."
While an American diplomate has confirmed that Camp Kosciuszko was built to confront Russia, the garrison is not near the Russian border. Poland has been a key player in getting Western arms shipments and other equipment to Ukraine, given its proximity to the war-torn country. According to a tweet from U.S. Ambassador to Poland Mark Brzezinski, the decision to open a permanent base in Poland proves that "the United States is committed to Poland and the NATO alliance, and that we are united in the face of Russian aggression."
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The Pentagon announced this week that it intends to continue patrolling international territory despite Moscow putting the U.S. on notice after an incident last week in which an American MQ-9 Reaper drone was intercepted and then subsequently crashed into the Black Sea. The Kremlin has announced that it has closed some of the airspace over the Black Sea as part of a ‘special operation’ taking place in Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov issued a new warning indicating that Moscow will take “countermeasures” against any U.S. or NATO drone flights over the area of the Black Sea where the previous drone interception incident occurred.
Ryabkov cautioned, “We warn them against trying to play on their nerves, testing our patience.” According to Ryabkov, the U.S. drone “was in a zone where we introduced a special regime associated with conducting military exercises.”
He went on to reiterate that Russia would protect its security and sovereignty “by all means available” and that “no American drones, whether reconnaissance, strike, strategic, or any other kind,” will “shake their determination.”
While U.S. drone flights have remained in international airspace, the Pentagon has shifted the flight paths further away from Crimea after last Tuesday’s drone collision with a Russian jet over concerns that another such incident could lead to a direct conflict with Russia. According to one U.S. official, the drone flight paths were altered “to avoid being too provocative” with Moscow.
The official did note that while the drone paths will remain further away from the Crimean Peninsula “for the time being,” there is already “an appetite” to move the flight paths closer to Crimea.
Russian forces are reportedly working to recover the U.S. drone that crashed into deep waters in the Black Sea last week.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been in Moscow meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and laying out Beijing's 12-point peace plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine since Monday. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it known that he is also willing to meet with Xi to discuss Kyiv's peace formula for a possible end to the war that entered its second year last month.
"We believe that many of the provisions of the peace plan put forward by China are consonant with Russian approaches and can be taken as the basis for a peaceful settlement when they are ready for that in the West and in Kyiv," Putin told Xi.
"However, so far we see no such readiness from their side," Putin added, assigning blame for the lack of peace talks on Ukraine.
Zelensky, however, said Tuesday that the Ukrainian government has already reached out to China and invited officials in Beijing to engage in talks regarding how to implement Kyiv's peace plan and that he is waiting to hear back from the Chinese.
"We offered China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula across all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer," Zelensky said during a Tuesday press conference and added, "We are receiving some signals, but there are no specifics yet."
Last month, Zelensky surprised many when he responded positively to Xi offering Beijing's 12-point peace plan as a starting place for negotiations.
"I think the fact that China started talking about Ukraine is not bad. But the question is what follows the words," Zelensky said last month.
"I think some of the Chinese proposals respect international law, and I think we can work on it with China. Why not? Our goal is to gather many around us to isolate one [Russia]," Zelensky concluded.
After China released its peace plan a few weeks ago, Beijing has begun to emerge as a mediator between the two countries, but not everyone is happy about the possibility of China-led peace negotiations. Washington has been forced to take a backseat amid unprecedented Russian and Chinese cooperation.
There is also likely mounting pressure being put on Zelensky to reject any friendly approaches from China, as many in the West see Beijing's attempt at mediating negotiations as a way to keep Russia strong and on the offensive in Ukraine. It will be interesting to see if China and Ukraine are able to materialize talks that bring in Moscow, although Washington is sure to be quite displeased.
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Four GOP Congressmen are pushing the hesitant Biden administration to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. The munitions, which indiscriminately drop hundreds of smaller individual bombs over a large area, have been banned in some 120 countries and are seen as far less accurate compared to other, more conventional weapons. Despite this, 4 Congressmen sent a letter to the Biden White House criticizing its “reluctance to provide Ukraine the right type and amount of long-range fires and maneuver capability to create.”
The letter was signed by the following 4 Republican members of Congress:
The Congressmen want the cluster munitions provided as part of the next major weapons package approval.
While Ukraine has specifically requested the MK-20 air-delivered cluster bombs, Kyiv claims that it will not be dropping the small bombs en masse as they are designed to be but rather will be dropping the individual bombs from either drones or 155mm artillery cluster shells.
While the U.S. has a history of producing, using, and selling cluster munitions to its allies, those practices stopped in 2016 when Textron Systems Corporation stopped producing MK-20s, and the U.S. stopped selling them to Saudi Arabia. However, it is estimated that there are still approximately 1 million cluster munitions in Pentagon stockpiles.
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Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Poland’s Ambassador to France, made the startling declaration that Poland would declare war on Russia should Ukraine lose the war. “If Ukraine fails to defend its independence,” the ambassador told French television, “we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict.”
The statement is another example of the aggressive pro-war policy pursued by NATO and the European Union. It produced shock and outrage in France. Florian Philippot, President of the Les Patriotes Party remarked on Twitter, “Crazy statement from the ambassador of Poland in France: he announces the entry into war of his country against Russia if Zelensky loses! France embarked with this country via the EU and NATO?! These madmen refuse Peace!”
The Polish Embassy in France quickly denounced the statement of its own ambassador, insisting that the media interpreted the ambassador’s words “out of context.” They claim that in other parts of the interview Rościszewski “clearly says that Poland is not at war, but will do everything to help Ukraine defend itself in this conflict.” Nevertheless, the video is clear that the ambassador stated categorically that Poland would enter the war against Russia if Ukraine is feated. Is Warsaw launching a trial balloon for launching World War III?
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A renewed bipartisan push is surfacing among Congressmen to pressure the Biden administration to approve sending F-16 jets to Ukraine, as Russia has almost completely encircled the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.
On Tuesday, a bipartisan group of 8 senators sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with renewed calls to give U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine.
According to the letter, the senators argued that F-16s are desperately needed at this “critical juncture” and claimed that the jets would give the Ukrainians the advantage they need to defeat the Russians. The senators stated that providing the jets to Kyiv would be a “game changer on the battlefield” and added, “After speaking with U.S., Ukrainian, and foreign leaders working to support Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference last month, we believe the U.S. needs to take a hard look at providing F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.”
Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has headed the bipartisan effort. The lawmakers are also pressuring the Pentagon for more information regarding what the timetable would need to be and what resources it would take to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s if the administration agrees to send the jets.
Joining Senator Kelly in the renewed effort are Democratic senators Tammy Duckworth (IL), Tim Kaine (VA), Martin Heinrich (NM), and Jacky Rosen (NV). Also backing the letter were Republican senators Lisa Murkowski (AK), Tommy Tuberville (AL), and Ted Budd (NC).
The Biden administration and defense officials, however, are still insistent that anti-air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition rank higher on the list of priorities for Ukraine and even testified to Congress recently regarding the same.
In addition to the 8 senators who drafted the letter, other Congressmen are also pushing for more, including Republicans Tom Cotton and Lindsay Graham.
While Cotton has accused the White House of taking “half measures” regarding the war in Ukraine and has a list of escalatory measures he would like to see taken, Graham has begun arguing that the U.S. should fire on Russian aircraft.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, confirmed during a Wednesday press conference that he recently spoke with Russian Defense Secretary, Sergei Shoigu, for the first time since October, which is a good indication that the two countries are not yet ready to enter a direct conflict, as some senators appear to be pushing for.
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Reprinted with permission Mises Institute Jeff Deist and Robert P. Murphy
Progressives view all aspects of human life as a struggle against forces of oppression. Earlier this week on BBC, Professor Mariana Mazzucato suggested governments across the West should simply print money not only to help Ukraine, but also to finance other "wars" against climate change, inequality, and more. Should national treasuries essentially adopt a permanent wartime footing and print far more money, as Mazzucato and Warren Mosler recommend? Hint: Jeff and Bob say "No."
Jeff's article "A Permanent Wartime Economy": Mises.org/HAP386a
Bob's debate with Warren Mosler: Mises.org/HAP386b
Bob's article in The American Conservative on the Greenbacker movement: Mises.org/386c
Jeff Deist is president of the Mises Institute. He previously worked as chief of staff to Congressman Ron Paul, and as an attorney for private equity clients. Contact: email; Twitter.
Robert P. Murphy is a Senior Fellow with the Mises Institute. He is the author of numerous books: Contra Krugman: Smashing the Errors of America's Most Famous Keynesian; Chaos Theory; Lessons for the Young Economist; Choice: Cooperation, Enterprise, and Human Action; The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism; Understanding Bitcoin (with Silas Barta), among others. He is also host of The Bob Murphy Show.
Host L Todd Wood gives an update on the Ukraine War, and speaks with Major General Paul Vallely, US Army Retired on the conflict.
U.S. Soldiers, assigned to 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment, train with the Integrated Visual Augmentation System and the Enhanced Night Vision Goggles during Project Convergence 2022 (PC22) at Fort Irwin, Calif., Nov. 7, 2022. PC22 brings together members of the All-Service and Multinational force to rigorously test the effectiveness and interoperability of cutting-edge weapons and battle systems. (U.S. Army photo by SGT Thiem Huynh)
There is no shortage of commentary on the lessons to be learned from the war in Ukraine. There is an understandable debate unfolding given the tremendous amount of sacrifice, human loss, and suffering. The stakes are high and learning needs to occur. War is, and has always been, the best teacher. It has been nothing short of incredible what David has been doing to Goliath on the Steppes of Ukraine.
There are indeed valuable lessons to learn from all sides. Yet, for Western militaries, it is more about the lessons they may not want to hear that will prove to be the most valuable in deterring, preparing, and if necessary, fighting the next war. Much of the West has over invested in other domains (e.g., maritime, air) and niche capabilities, at the expense of combat power on land. The war in Ukraine has validated the need for decisive land combat power to win large-scale wars. These types of wars are far from extinction and finding the right balance of capabilities to wage war in appropriate fashion, remains a fundamental security challenge for Western nations...
To read more visit Real Clear Defense.
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The Pentagon is concerned amid a rise in “troubling” reports that cooperation is increasing between Moscow and Beijing regarding China’s efforts to build new nuclear weapons. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Department of Defense (DOD) made an official accusation regarding the reports.
The Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy, John F. Plumb, said during a Wednesday House Armed Services’ strategic forces subcommittee hearing, “It’s very troubling to see Russia and China cooperating on this.”
“They may have talking points around it, but there’s no getting around the fact that breeder reactors are plutonium, and plutonium is for weapons. So I think the [Defense] Department is concerned. And, of course, it matches our concerns about China’s increased expansion of its nuclear forces as well because you need more plutonium for more weapons,” Plumb added.
Despite Plumb’s comments during the hearing, the DOD appeared to have a hard time keeping up with which radioactive material Russia was supplying to China.
Plumb also discussed Beijing diversifying its high-tech weapons arsenal with assistance from Russia. Changes to the arsenal include high-altitude surveillance balloons, like the one shot down by the U.S. last month, and even hypersonic missiles with nuclear tips.
“China is engaged in a significant and fast-paced expansion and diversification of its nuclear forces. Also, Russia and China view space as a warfighting domain,” Plumb told the subcommittee.
Meanwhile, Congressmen are calling on the Biden administration to disrupt the relationship between China and Russia to interrupt the sharing of weapons technology between the two countries.
Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), who is the subcommittee chairman, said, “I’m hopeful that we will see a comprehensive strategy from the administration to break this relationship – and ideally shatter Rosatom.”
The DOD’s accusations come dangerously close to the recent pull out of Russia from the New START nuclear arms treaty, with Putin announcing last month that Moscow was suspending the agreement.
Lamborn said about the New START suspension and the exchange of treaty-mandated nuclear information, “It is curious that we provide Russia with this benefit under the treaty when Russia is no longer reciprocating.”
Many in Washington are beginning to view the Russian and China ‘threats’ as intertwined, largely in part to Russia’s war in Ukraine and Beijing’s continued support for Moscow.
In recent weeks, American intelligence has begun to report that Beijing is considering providing lethal weapons to Russia for its use in Ukraine.
Last week Rep. Mike Tuner (R-OH) told NBC’s Meet the Press, “The problem with China entering this is because you’ve got the West giving weapons to Ukraine.”
“You’ve got Russia depleting their stores. We obviously – the West together have an ability to impact Ukraine greater than Russia alone does,” Turner added.
Unfortunately, with China’s backing, Russia would become a much more powerful enemy for Ukraine and its Western allies to contend with. In the meantime, the U.S. government continues put pressure on Beijing over its ‘no limits’ partnership with Moscow.
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As Russia pushes into a second year of war with Ukraine, the Biden administration has continuously committed to sending more and more financial and military aid to Kyiv. Biden has even gone so far as to say that the U.S. will support Ukraine indefinitely as the war continues with no end in sight. Meanwhile, at home, U.S. arms manufacturers are struggling to meet the heightened demand, and arms and ammunition for American forces are at dangerously low levels.
As top officials in the Biden administration seem to announce new aid packages for Ukraine weekly, Americans are beginning to wonder when Washington will realize that U.S. national security is at risk due to the administration’s blind aid agreements.
Not only is Biden sending arms and munitions to Ukraine faster than American manufacturers can produce them, but Ukrainian troops have been burning through the supply at such an alarming rate that the U.S. military has had to train Ukrainian forces on different fighting tactics that use less artillery.
To date, Biden has sent approximately one-third of U.S. stockpiles of both Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Kyiv. Meanwhile, U.S. arms manufacturers typically produce between 1,000 and 2,100 Javelins a year. Now, the Army is struggling to get the produces to manufacture up to 4,000 a year, and it’s unlikely to happen.
According to some estimates, the Ukrainians are using 6,000 to 7,000 155 mm artillery shells a day, a rate that could deplete the entirety of Britain’s stockpile of NATO-standard 155 mm shells in a mere 8 days. Ukrainian troops are also burning through ammo for U.S.-manufactured HIMARS (high-mobility artillery rocket system) and other types of munitions just as quickly.
The picture of the situation gets even bleaker if one factors in the possibility of the U.S. defending Taiwan should China attack the island. Should the U.S. defend Taiwan if China decides to attack, the U.S. could run out of ammunition, like missiles, artillery shells, etc., in one week.
The ammunition problems are compounded by supply chain issues. In many cases, manufacturers are having to wait months, in some cases over a year, to receive some of the necessary components.
Other concerns include being able to accurately estimate the amount of arms and munitions that are needed. With the war in Ukraine continuing with no sort of timeline to work off of and rising tensions between Beijing, Washington, and Taipei, it’s challenging for the military to accurately assess how many munitions need to be produced.
According to Secretary of the Army Douglas Bush, “The long-term challenge will be how much of that capacity can we sustain over time, post-conflict.”
“We don’t know how long the conflict will last. We don’t know how low our stocks will be,” Bush added.
Meanwhile, many Americans have expressed concern that the Biden administration is putting its support of Ukraine ahead of U.S. national security and is setting the U.S. up for catastrophe should the country get further involved with Ukraine due to Russian provocation, or come to the aid of Taiwan if China decides to attack.
The White House has so far ruled out calls to provide the Ukrainian government with F-16 fighter jets, but clearly the idea is still on the table and Biden may be close to pulling the trigger amid intense administration discussions.
"Two Ukrainian pilots are currently in the United States undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official," a weekend NBC report indicates.
"The Ukrainians’ skills are being evaluated on simulators at a U.S. military base in Tucson, Arizona, the officials said, and they may be joined by more of their fellow pilots soon," the report continues...
To read more visit Zero Hedge.
Despite its alleged neutrality, there is evidence that Serbia has provided as many as 3,500 Grad rockets to Ukraine. According to Ukraine Arms Tracker, the rockets being delivered to Ukraine are the ER Grad 2000 version, with a maximum range of 40 kilometers instead of the standard 20 kilometers. If the authorities in Belgrade knew this, it would be a significant violation of the country’s declared policy, one reaffirmed by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on multiple occasions.
These new revelations follow a 2019 scandal in which Serbia was caught supplying 60mm mortar shells to Ukraine that ended up being used against the civilian population in the Donbass region. Vučić apologized for that incident, claiming that Krušik had sent them to Poland. But published documents proved that Ukraine was listed as the recipient.
The Mash News Agency published a video of a warehouse in Bratislava where the 3,500, 122mm M-21 rockets for Grad rocket launchers were being housed before their transfer to Ukraine. According to Mash, the rockets were delivered to Slovakia on February 4 and 6. The video also presents documentation showing the Serbian Defense Company Krušik as the manufacturer and that the order was placed by a Canadian company JNJ Export Import for use in Turkey. The exporter of the ammunition was the Serbian company, Sofag. Upon receiving the shipment, the Turkish company Arca transferred the ammunition to the American company Global Ordinance, which then transferred it to Slovakia for use by Ukraine.
The Serbian Defense Ministry publicly denied any involvement in the matter. “We absolutely do not export weapons to Ukraine or Russia, and we have the right to export (weapons) to other countries that are legitimate end users,” Serbian Defense Minister Miloš Vučević told members of parliament on February 27. “Whether private companies buy (weapons) on third country markets and whether they sell to companies in other countries is not an issue for Serbia. We will not sell to anyone who participates (in military conflict) and we do not want our weapons to be used against any of the parties.” Vučević added.
The deal has aroused a great deal of suspicion because the Serbian company Sofag that exported the ammunition to Turkey is owned by Jelena Petrović, the daughter of shady arms dealer Slobodan Tešić. Tešić was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2017 for bribery and violating arms embargos. The sanctions, however, have not stopped him from selling arms to as many as six American companies, including the Global Military Products – part of the Global Ordnance group, which supplies weapons to the U.S. Department of Defense.
The Global Ordnance Group is owned by Marc Morales, another disreputable arms dealer who was previously indicted by the U.S. Justice Department in 2010 on charges of trying to bribe Gabon’s Minister of Defense to secure a $15 million arms deal. The Gabon deal was, in reality, an FBI sting operation to root out bribery of foreign officials in the arms industry. The case, however, fell apart on technicalities the following year.
In a 2022 interview with the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), Marc Morales, however, disavowed any ties to Tešić, saying, “To my knowledge, nobody from my company has ever met him and Global Ordnance definitely does not do business with him. And to clarify, I have never met him either.”
Do Serbian authorities know to whom they ended up selling the rockets? Alexander Milovanović, a former employee of the security service of the arms production enterprise Jugoimport SDPR, told the Serbian News Agency N1 that it is not plausible that Serbian authorities did not know of the transfer. “Based on the end-user certificate coming directly from a Turkish partner structure of our Ministry, these weapons should have ended up in Turkey, but apparently that did not happen. Then, the company MSM Novaky handed over the missiles to the Global Ordnance Trading Company, owned by Mark Morales, to which the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense issued a certificate of use,” Milovanović told N1.
Interestingly, Ukraine Arms Tracker seems to corroborate Milovanović, posting on Twitter, “It is also worth noting that the markings on the rockets were changed and do not match those usually seen on G2000 rockets, which may indicate that the manufacturer/exporter knew the rockets ultimate destination and tried to hide the origin.” While it is unlikely that definitive evidence will be revealed, it seems plausible that both Serbian and American authorities had direct knowledge of the scheme and signed off on it. Serbian authorities have been trying to appease Washington and Brussels in their efforts to join the European Union, while American authorities have no compunction about using disreputable arms dealers in their efforts to prop up the regime in Kiev.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, on Tuesday, confirmed that NATO and its members want Ukraine to eventually join the military alliance at some point in the future. “NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of our alliance, but at the same time that that is a long-term perspective,” Stoltenberg said.
“What is the issue now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation, and therefore we need to support Ukraine,” he added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing NATO for a “fast-tracked” process, despite his country being engaged in war with Russia and having an ongoing conflict in the country’s eastern region dating back to 2014 when Moscow annexed the Crimea peninsula and made it part of Russia.
NATO has never admitted a country that is engaged in an active conflict or has had an active conflict on its border, as doing so would automatically trigger Article 5 once the country was accepted into the alliance.
Ukraine is not the only country having difficulty joining NATO, with Sweden and Finland facing recent struggles as they attempt to join the alliance with a joint bid. All NATO members must unanimously agree to allow a country to join, but Turkey and Hungary have refused to admit Sweden. Stoltenberg said of the two holdout members, “My message has been for a long time… that time has come to finalize the ratification process. The time is now to ratify in both Budapest and in Ankara.”
In an effort to support Kyiv, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin added, “I see that the future of Ukraine is to be part of the European Union and also a member of NATO.”
However, CIA Director William Burns cautioned in a 2008 cable that Ukraine being permitted to enter NATO would be the “brightest of all red lines.”
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” Burns wrote in the cable. “I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests,” he concluded.
Not only is Ukraine’s entry into NATO going to be a slow process and a long way off, but the process for Kyiv to join the EU is expected to take years or even decades, according to some predictions.
Some Ukrainian officials are saying that their nation is already a de facto member of NATO, given how the level of arms and training NATO allies have offered the country already. Putin views assistance from NATO the same way and has made demilitarizing Ukraine one of Russia’s invasion objectives as a result of it.
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A top Department of Defense (DOD) official confirmed on Tuesday that American weapons provided to Ukraine have been captured by Russian forces on the battlefield. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with almost $45 billion in military aid over the past year.
According to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, Moscow has been capturing American weapons from Ukrainian battlefields and selling them on the black market.
“Our assessment is if some of these systems have been diverted, it’s by Russians who have captured things on the battlefield, which always happens,” Kahl said.
Beginning shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration began transferring an unprecedented number of weapons to Kyiv. From January 24, 2022, to January 15, 2023, Washington has provided Ukraine with $44.3 billion in military aid, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Kahl noted that there is “no evidence” to indicate that Kyiv had anything to do with the weapons entering the black market.
During the beginning of the war, CNN reported that Washington was lacking oversight regarding the weapons it sent to Kyiv. A source told CNN last April, “we have fidelity for a short time, but when it enters the fog of war, we have almost zero. It drops into a big black hole, and you have almost no sense of it at all after a short period of time.”
Jonas Oman, founder and CEO of Blue-Yellow, a Lithuanian-based organization that has been supplying the Ukrainian frontlines with military aid, told CBS News at the same time, “All of this stuff goes across the border, and then something happens, kind of like 30% of it reaches its final destination.”
Meanwhile, Congressman Matt Gaetz confronted Kahl about American weapons given to Ukraine ending up in the hands of neo-Nazis. Gaetz cited a 2018 Global Times article that found that American weapons were being used by the neo-Nazi militia Azov Battalion, which was absorbed into Ukraine’s National Guard. Kahl dismissed Gaetz’s question stating that the claim was “Beijing’s propaganda.”
The Azov Battalion has been seen with Western-made anti-tank weapons. According to a tweet by NEXTA in March, “A shipment of NLAW grenade launchers and instructors from #NATO countries arrived in Kharkiv. The Azov regiment was the first to learn about new weaponry.” The tweet included photos of Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi patches on their uniforms.
In July, a report was released by the American organization, the Stimson Center that said, “[The Azov Battalion’s] role in key Ukrainian theatres creates risks that arms could be diverted to Azov troops in contravention of U.S. law.”
According to Kahl, however, weapons given to Kyiv are tracked by Ukraine with scanners provided by the U.S., with the data then transferred to American officials at the embassy in Kyiv.
Despite the oversight that is in place, it is unclear how American arms have fallen into the hands of the Azov Battalion or if the Battalion is trafficking those arms to the Russians.
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Top Zelensky officials are considering a potential ‘strategic pullback’ from the beleaguered eastern city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that he is not prepared to order the continued defense of the city at all costs. Both Ukraine and Russia are suffering tremendous casualties in the fight for the city, but Russia has superior artillery fire, which it has been using nonstop around the clock. The city is almost completely surrounded by Russian troops.
According to Zelensky aide Alexander Rodnyansky, Kyiv has not yet pulled Ukrainian forces out of Bakhmut, but Zelensky may soon decide that the cost of defending the city “outweighs the benefits.”
“Our military is obviously going to weigh all of the options,” he said. “So far, they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing,” Rodnyansky added.
Zelensky has also said that defending Bakhmut has been “most difficult” for Ukrainian troops. However, on Wednesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Wagner Grop, said that Ukrainian forces have continued to put up fierce resistance to Russia’s continuous attacks on the city.
“The Ukrainian army is throwing extra reserves into Artyomovsk and trying to hold the town with all their strength,” Prigozhin said. Artyomovsk is the Russian name for Bakhmut.
“Tens of thousands of Ukrainian army fighters are putting up furious resistance. The bloodiness of the battles is growing by the day,” Prigozhin added.
Videos appearing on social media show the devastation. A barren battlefield has replaced a once peaceful, bustling city.
City streets and neighborhoods have been abandoned, bombed, and turned into a war zone.
With Russian forces pounding Bakhmut with nonstop artillery fire, there are no signs that things will improve for Ukrainian troops in the region. According to a retired U.S. Marine fighting in Ukraine, the frontlines in Bakhmut are a “meat grinder” where soldiers only survive an average of “four hours.”
On Tuesday, Zelensky said, “Russia does not count people at all, sending them to constantly storm our positions.”
“The intensity of fighting is only increasing,” Zelensky concluded.
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According to a retired U.S. Marine fighting in Ukraine, the frontlines are a “meat grinder,” and soldiers typically live an average of “four hours.”
Troy Offenbecker has joined the fight against Moscow with Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, where Russia has been fighting to capture the city of Bakhmut and has slowly been making gains in the area.
Back in January, Germany estimated that Ukraine was losing a “three-digit number” of soldiers every day during the fight for Bakhmut. Three months ago, when that estimate was released, President Joe Biden and his administration believed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was being too careless with Ukrainian lives in his defense of the city.
Offenbecker’s comments make one suspect that the situation is getting more dire for the Ukrainians.
“It’s been pretty bad on the ground. A lot of casualties.” Offenbecker said. He added that “the life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline.”
The marine went on to say that Moscow’s attack on Bakhmut has been relentless and that Russian forces show no sign of letting up. “[The artillery] is nonstop,” Offenbecker said. He added that Russian forces fight around the clock and said, “[The Russians] have maybe run into a shortage of shells lately, but the past couple of weeks, it’s been nonstop. All day and night.”
Russian forces are not the only ones potentially facing a shortage of artillery shells, with NATO telling Zelensky last month that Kyiv’s allies are struggling to find more shells to send to Ukraine. According to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the U.S. will begin training Ukrainian troops in fighting methods that require fewer munitions.
Western leaders are anticipating a Russian offensive either this winter or spring after the Kremlin ordered a mobilization of 300,000 troops last year. Offenbecker agrees with Ukrainian officials who believe that the much anticipated Russian offensive is now underway. “With the amount of shelling, the amount of armor that they’ve brought in, I think it’s started,” he said.
With both Kyiv and Moscow keeping casualties close to the vest, it is unclear how significant the death toll is for each country. Since the beginning of the war, Zelensky has nationalized his nation’s media, imprisoned citizens who have opposed his administration, and outlawed his political opposition.
Regarding the state of Ukrainian journalism, press union leader Serhiy Guz, “We never know what’s the basis of these accusations, what’s the pro-Russian link…It starts to look like a political accusation rather than a genuine crime.”
“A lot of journalists self-censor now,” Guz concluded.
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On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv is preparing to launch attacks in an effort to recapture Crimea. The plan for the attacks includes forming new military units and sending forces to train in other countries.
“There are military steps, and we are preparing for them. We are ready mentally. We are preparing technically: with weapons, reinforcements, the formation of brigades, in particular the assault brigades, of different categories and nature,” Zelensky said during a press conference.
According to the local news agency, Ukrinform, Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces were being sent to other countries for training on how to use new weapons. “We have to be ready. Then, there will be corresponding fair de-occupation steps, and, God willing, they will be successful,” he continued.
While other top Ukrainian officials, along with Zelensky, have made it known that recapturing Crimea is one of their main goals for the war, it will be difficult as Russia controls much of the territory north of Crimea in the Kherson Oblast region. Assessments from the Pentagon also indicate that retaking Crimea will be unlikely for Kyiv. The Crimean Peninsula was taken by Russia in 2014.
Despite the Pentagon’s doubt, the Biden administration has said that it will remain supportive of Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. “Russia has turned Crimea into a massive military installation… those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that,” said Victoria Nuland, the U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs.
However, the U.S. supporting Ukrainian assaults on Crimea would risk a serious escalation with Moscow. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged the risk of causing further escalation, referring to the peninsula as a “red line” for Russian President Vladimir Putin
Putin has exhibited a willingness to escalate the war over attacks on Crimea, given that Russia’s relentless missile and drone assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure did not begin until Kyiv bombed the Kerch Bride, which connects Crimea with the Russian mainland.
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, and, according to polling in the region since Moscow’s takeover, the majority of residents in the Crimea Peninsula are happy that their territory joined with Russia.
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Ukraine's military intelligence service has released a photo of an American-made Black Hawk helicopter painted with a Ukrainian flag and has indicated that it has been used in military operations.
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence posted two photos of the helicopter on its Twitter account and website on Tuesday. According to a press release that was published at the time the photos were posted, the Black Hawk was recently used for military missions.
"Military intelligence aviation of Ukraine continues its work on the front line of the defense of our country. Reconnaissance pilots have just returned from another combat mission," the press release stated.
"Combat helicopters significantly increase the capabilities of the special units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the effectiveness of special operations," it added.
Also pictured in one of the photos is a Ukrainian Mi-24 Hind helicopter.
It is currently unclear how the Ukrainian military obtained the Black Hawk. The White House has approved sending Kyiv Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters. Those aircraft were formerly owned by the Afghan government before it collapsed in 2021 following the catastrophic U.S. pullout of the country. If the U.S. sent the helicopter, the Biden administration has not publicly announced that it has provided Black Hawks to Kyiv.
To date, President Biden has not sent long-range weapons or fighter jets to Ukraine, despite Zelensky's pleas for such weapons and aircraft.
The Biden administration has, however, been steadily increasing the heavy arms shipments, which had included HIMARS, ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB), and a Patriot missile batter along with other equipment. Last month the U.S. and Germany agreed to send M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks as well.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced Thursday that they have intelligence reports that the Zelensky regime is plotting a provocation in the Transnistria region of Moldova in an effort to draw the Republic of Moldova into the war in Ukraine.
“According to obtained information, in the near future, the Kiev regime is planning an armed false-flag operation against the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic which will be implemented by the units of Ukraine’s armed forces with the involvement of the Azov nationalist formation,” a defense ministry spokesperson told reporters.
The spokesman specified that a staged invasion by allegedly Russian troops from Transnistria will be used as the pretext for the invasion. “To this end, Ukrainian saboteurs involved in the false-flag invasion will be wearing the uniforms of the servicemen of the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces,” he added.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin added that the West had ordered the government in Chișinău to stop any interaction with the Moscow-backed Transnistrian administration.
The news caused consternation among the public in the Republic of Moldova. Authorities in Chișinău denied any knowledge of the information presented by the Russian Defense Ministry and issued a call for calm. “We call for calm and invite the public to follow the official and credible sources of the Republic of Moldova. Our institutions cooperate with foreign partners, and in case of any danger to the country, they will inform the public opinion without delay,” the Moldavian Government said in a statement to TVR Moldova.
Some analysts say it appears the Ukrainians have been working recently to involve Moldova in the conflict in their attempt to extend the fighting as close to NATO borders as possible and to shore up Western support for Zelensky. The recent installation of a NATO-approved government in Moldova was allegedly a direct result of these efforts. This possibly led Vladimir Putin earlier this week to withdraw formal Russian recognition of Moldavia’s sovereignty.
The situation in Moldova is a powder keg. If Ukraine succeeds in drawing Moldova into the conflict will NATO become directly involved in the war given recent assurances by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis that Romania will defend Moldova's territorial integrity by all means possible? It should be noted that today’s Republic of Moldova, along with southern Bessarabia and northern Bucovina currently in Ukraine, are historical Romanian territories brutally stripped from Romania by the Soviets at the outset of World War II.
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In his remarks on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that Western countries must "help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones and that's why the United Kingdom will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons."
According to Sunak, the UK government is working with its NATO allies to "give Ukraine the most advanced air defence systems and build the air force they need to defend their nation."
"[The United Kingdom] is ready to help any country to provide Ukraine planes they need today, but we must also train Ukrainian pilots to use advanced jets," he added.
Sunak's escalation comes as the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed concern that China is considering moving from "providing rhetorical, political, diplomatic support to Russia" to "providing lethal support to Russia." Should that happen, Blinken has warned that it would have "serious consequences" for Chinese-American relations.
Over the past year, the UK has provided almost £4 billion in aid to Ukraine, with £2.3 billion of that given in the form of military aid that included weapons, ammunition, and other military gear and equipment.
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Ukraine earlier this month, the UK parliament began considering sending fighter jets and long-range missiles to Kyiv.
The two types of long-range missiles being considered are the 150-mile range Harppon high-explosive, which is an anti-ship missile, and the 350-mile range Storm Shadow cruise missile. Kyiv has said that if it receives the missiles, they will be used to expand the war by launching an assault on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine back in 2014.
It is also possible that the British long-range missiles could be used to target Russian territory, which could easily escalate the conflict from a localized war to a full-scale global conflict.
Sunak has also suggested that NATO add a "new charter" in its agreement in order to "help protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression."
When Zelensky visited London earlier this month, he and Sunak signed the London Declaration, in which Britain recommitted to its stance of supporting Ukraine's admission to NATO, which Russia has cited as a cause for the invasion, saying that having NATO expand to its doorstep is a "red line."
Despite, threats from the Kremlin, the declaration states, "[t]he UK has continued to lead the way in support for Ukraine to defend itself, including anti-tank weapons and tanks. Our military support to Ukraine is enduring. UK support will continue to contribute across all three domains; Land, Air, Sea."
The UK was not the only country calling for additional aid for Ukraine at the Munich conference. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that the world should prepare for a "long war" and called for Germany's Western allies to continue to supply Ukraine with more weaponry, tanks, and ammunition.
Despite French President Emmanuel Macron initially being a proponent of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, he announced in Munich that now is "not the time for dialogue." Hopes for a peaceful resolution were further diminished when Zelensky stated that he would not accept any peace agreement if it required territorial concessions to Russia, which is likely to be seen as a non-starter for Moscow.
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In a recent interview with the CBS program "Face the Nation," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that he hoped U.S. President Joe Biden would confirm his conviction to see Russia defeated in Putin's war against Ukraine.
Morawiecki also made it known that he did not agree with French President Emmanuel Macron or German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who both believe that Russia "cannot win this war and Ukraine cannot be defeated."
According to Morawiecki, "We have to change that paradigm, and we have to say, Ukraine must win, and Russia must be defeated." The reason for Morawiecki's determination that Moscow has to be defeated is because "the very nature of Russia is to conquer other countries."
When asked about how he felt about attempting to negotiate with Putin remaining in power, Morawiecki noted that he had just come from the Munich Security Conference and pointed out that Munich had also been the site of another conference in 1938 when other European leaders had thought they had negotiated peace.
"This time around, there was no room for such naivety, and it was up to the Ukrainians to define what would be negotiated with Russia and when," Morawiecki added.
The Prime Minister was also asked if any movement had been made with the U.S. in an effort to increase the U.S. military presence in Poland. Morawiecki said that his country was in talks with the Biden administration to strengthen the U.S. military presence in Poland from the current 11,000 troops stationed there and to make it "more permanent."
Morawiecki warned that "if we fail to integrate Ukraine into NATO and the European Union, Ukraine will always be a buffer zone," meaning that the region will not be secured until Ukraine's ascension to the military alliance has been confirmed.
The Prime Minister deflected a bit when asked if Warsaw would send fighter jets to Kyiv and noted that a year ago, no one imagined that Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks or Patriot systems would be offered to Ukraine.
He then added that fighter jets could only be given, "in combination with other NATO allies, and in particular, under the leadership of the United States."
Morawiecki appears to be taking the same approach that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took regarding sending tanks to Kyiv, saying that the U.S. must send tanks first.
Host L Todd Wood speaks to 'Alex' on the inside in Kyiv as to what is happening with American aid.
In an effort to decrease Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund the war in Ukraine that Russia started in February 2022, the U.S. and other Western countries have imposed heavy sanctions on Russia. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has lost access to roughly half of its gold and foreign currency reserves. Russian supply chains and economic connections between firms are also undergoing a slow reconfiguration process. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has also lost access to the European energy market due to the EU’s oil embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil. Russia has been forced to sell its crude for $47 a barrel, which includes a discount of $30-40 depending on the purchaser. Next week, an EU embargo on Russian oil will take effect as well.
Unfortunately, despite all the embargos, sanctions, and other restrictions, Putin still has enough funds to pursue his war in Ukraine for at least the next 3 years unless something drastic changes.
Russia has ample reserves of gold and Chinese yuan, and even if the Kremlin is forced to cut spending in the future, military and social spending will not be affected as they are ring-fenced.
To protect its military expenditure, Russia’s budget is designed so that military spending does not depend on volatile oil and gas income but is rather backed by more “predictable” income streams. The Russian Finance Ministry anticipates the ring-fenced expenditures will need to increase by 0.5% of GDP to roughly 17.2 rubles (11.5% of GDP) and then hold at that level through 2025. The increase will take the military expenditure up to 9.5 trillion rubles and social spending to 7.3 trillion rubles.
“The economy is functioning: taxes are collected, businesses are adapting,” a Russian federal official said last week as Putin promised that the military expenditure would not see a reduction. “We still have a piggy bank,” the official added. Should there be a financial shock in the future, it is expected that the Kremlin would cut infrastructure spending and use quasi-state institutions, like development banks, to cover the cost of infrastructure projects.
Russia currently has a surplus of $227.4 billion from 2022, and most expect it to have a surplus this year, despite all the sanctions from the West. One of Russia’s continued exports is its hydrocarbons. However, income from those exports is expected to dip substantially.
Predictions for Russia’s economic future are fairly inaccurate, given that many official forecasts are not accurate. The Russian state budget currently includes 1.7 trillion rubles of revenue from the exportation of 125 billion cubic meters of gas. However, those figures are inaccurate as the macro forecasts do not account for the Nordstream pipeline explosion and loss of revenue as a result. The pipeline explosion occurred right before the budget was submitted in September. “If 90 billion cubic meters [of gas] are exported, that’s already a good result,” said Alexander Isakov from Bloomberg Economics.
In addition to inaccurate export estimates, the budget also does not account for the caps on oil and gas prices or the fact that Russia may agree to discounts on gas and payment deferrals for Turkey in 2023. Loko Bank analyst Dmitry Polevoy wrote, “I value them at $29 billion and $42 billion respectively – we are talking about $18 billion.”
On Monday, Russia extended a deferred payment of insurance premiums until 2024. The deficit was 2.1 trillion rubles more than expected in December. One of the reasons for that is that it needed to pay off 772 billion rubles in deferred insurance premiums. It is unclear how the Kremlin spent the remaining 1.3 trillion rubles.
The deferment on insurance premiums this month means that those costs will not be reflected in the budget until 2024. As a result, the deficit is likely to be 2.3% of GDP. It is officially expected to be 2%, based on oil prices of $70 a barrel, which, as mentioned above, is an inaccurate figure.
According to estimates from Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the IIF, a decrease of $10 in the average price of oil over the course of this year would cost Russia $15 billion. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics has a more conservative estimate showing that if Russian crude costs an average of $50 a barrel, then the deficit will increase to about 3% of GDP.
The deficit will not affect Putin’s ability to fund the war, however, because Russia has enough reserves of yuan, euros, and gold to cover the deficit for the next 3 years. Bloomberg has also estimated that the sale of foreign currency could increase from 55 billion rubles this month to 120 billion rubles in February. While unlikely, if oil prices fell as low as $25 a barrel, Russia would burn through its reserve of yuan in a year.
Even if there was a sharp decline in oil and gas revenue and Russia emptied its other financial reserves, military expenditure can still be taken from tax revenues. If the situation were to become that dire, then investment in economic development would likely also be transferred to quasi-state institutions, and Russians would suffer the consequences.
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On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that it will be increasing the production of artillery ammunition by 500% over the next two years due to depleted military stockpiles caused by sending millions of shells to Ukraine.
Due to the Biden administration’s promise to send more than one million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, the U.S. army will be forced to increase its production numbers from 14,400 155 mm shells a month to more than 90,000 each month.
According to an Army report, the military will expand factories and contract with new producers to meet the demand. The effort is being described as “the most aggressive modernization effort in nearly 40 years” of the US military-industrial complex.
Multiple arms manufacturers are involved in the production of the 155mm shells that are used as ammunition for Howitzers. The steel bodies for the shells are produced by General Dynamics. BAE Systems mixes the explosives used in the shells, and American Ordnance fills the bodies with the explosives manufactured by BAE Systems. Additional contractors produce the fuses that are eventually screwed into the shells.
While there is no sign of Russia’s war against Ukraine ending anytime soon, the U.S. military drastically increasing ammunition production for the next 2 years is seen as an indicator that the U.S. intends to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia for potentially years to come.
There are concerns that the increased ammunition production is not sustainable long-term. U.S. military officials have indicated that it may be challenging for the U.S. to continue arming both Ukraine’s military and the United States’ military as the war continues. It is estimated that Ukrainian troops are currently using approximately 90,000 artillery rounds each month. That figure is more than double what the U.S. and Europe are currently able to produce.
In its effort to continuously support Ukraine, the U.S. has had to access a little-known stockpile of weapons stored in Israel to meet Ukraine’s demand. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has also requested that U.S. troops stationed in South Korea send equipment to Ukraine as well.
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In a move that Russia is likely to interpret as an escalation, French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on Wednesday to provide French-made AMX-10 RC light tanks to Ukraine. Macron is the first Western leader to provide tanks to the war-torn country.
The tanks were designed in the 1980s and are currently being phased out of the French military. Until this week, Macron has refused to provide armor to Ukraine for fear of escalating already mounting tensions with Russia.
Despite France's hesitation to send tanks in the past, the Western country has provided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with air defense systems, artillery, armored vehicles, and anti-aircraft missiles. In addition to providing arms to Ukraine, Macron has been one of the only European leaders to consistently call for peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev to attempt to bring the conflict to a peaceful resolution.
The transition from encouraging peace negotiations to now providing armored tanks is a clear indication that hopes of negotiation are dwindling among Western leaders. A French presidential aide told reporters that "The president wanted to increase aid [to Ukraine] by accepting to deliver AMX-10 RC light tanks." The aid continued, "It is the first time that Wester-designed tanks are supplied to the Ukrainian armed forces."
In response to the gesture, Zelensky wrote on Twitter, "Had a long and detailed conversation with President of France Emmanuel Macron on the current situation. Thanked for the decision to transfer light tanks and Bastion APCs to Ukraine, as well as for intensifying work with partners in the same direction."
Days after Macron's commitment to send tanks, U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to send Bradley M2s to Kiev. Germany also vowed to send Marder IFVs to Zelensky, which is a bit risky given that Germany has had to move its Marder vehicles to the front-line service after the tanks purchased to replace them have had numerous problems and have been deemed unusable in actual battle.
Previously this year, Germany reversed its long-standing policy to not send or sell weapons in combat zones after the invasion of Ukraine last February. Following the invasion, Germany also announced that it would finally begin to meet its NATO spending requirements for its military, after having neglected its military for years.
While Western leaders continue to hope for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, it appears that multiple countries are preparing to support Ukraine for the long haul, given the refusal of either side to negotiate a peaceful end.
The Ukrainian military is getting arrogant with the constant supply of the most expensive, lethal weapons western militaries can offer -- a hundred billion dollars worth.
See the video below from 'Captain Himars'. Himars is the U.S. rocket launch system which the Kremlin says killed a large number of conscripts at a barracks recently in the Russian-controlled, Eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass.
Judge for yourself.
With a new GOP House being currently sworn in, it remains to be seen if the weapons gravy train will continue from U.S. DoD. Many new House members are not fond of unlimited funding for another 'forever war' where the U.S. has no vital interest.
Hosts L Todd Wood and Dan O'Shea give the latest developments from the Ukraine War, with a special appearance from reporter on the ground in Kyiv.
Russian forces have just suffered what may be their single biggest loss of the war in an attack, after a Ukrainian strike killed multiple dozens, or possibly hundreds, of newly mobilized troops in the east of the country. Moscow is now pointing to a US role in the devastating attack.
"Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka," The Wall Street Journal reports of the attack in Russian-occupied Donbas.
The defense ministry confirmed that 63 Russian troops died in the blast, saying that a wave of HIMARS rockets delivering "high-explosive warheads" struck the facility that housed the troops...
To read more visit Zero Hedge.
According to a report by investigative journalist Jack Murphy that was released Sunday, the CIA has been using the intelligence services of a European NATO country to conduct sabotage attacks in Russian territory since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The report cites multiple unnamed former US intelligence and military officials.
While the report states that no US personnel are on the ground in Russia, it does confirm that the operations are being directed by the CIA with the use of an ally’s intelligence which adds a second layer of plausible deniability. That added layer of deniability is a large part of why President Biden approved the operations, according to a former US special operations official.
Murphy did not name the NATO ally whose intelligence services the US is working with in the report because “doing so might endanger the operational security of cells that are still operational inside of Russia.”
According to Murphy’s report, the covert operation in Russia took years to plan. Two former military officials confirmed that the NATO ally’s intelligence service had hidden a cache of explosives and other gear in Russia over a decade ago and that some of it have been used recently.
A former US special operations official said that the CIA did not get involved in Russia until 2014. The first sleeper cells directed by both the CIA and the NATO ally’s intelligence service were in 2016. More sleeper cells that are directed by both agencies have entered Russia since.
The NATO country’s spy service provided the operatives and gave them cover stories to explain why they were in Russia along with the necessary documentation to support the stories. The NATO ally activated the sleeper cells around the time that Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24 and the cells were immediately ready to take orders regarding targets to strike.
While it is unclear how many attacks the sleeper cells have carried out thus far, there have been numerous unexplained explosions at Russian railroads, military installations, and powerplants since the invasion of Ukraine. Murphy’s report indicated that the cells could have been behind a fire at the research institute of Russia’s Aerospace Defense Forces in April, which killed more than 20 people.
The kind of sabotage operations that the CIA is directing cannot be executed without a presidential finding. Former President Barack Obama signed a finding in 2016 allowing covert operations against Russia due to unproven allegations that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.
The finding Obama signed allows for cyberweapons to be planted in Russia’s infrastructure, which is the digital equivalent of a bomb that could be detonated if things escalated between the US and Russia in the future.
There is some debate about what Obama’s finding permitted, with one former CIA official saying that the finding allowed for sabotage operations against Russia while different former officials have said that the current operations would require either a new finding or an amendment to Obama’s finding.
While a spokesperson for the CIA denied the report’s allegations, it should be noted that the CIA legally has the authority to deny the existence of its covert operations.
While Ukraine’s recent strikes inside Russian territory could lead to a nuclear escalation between NATO and Russia, the CIA directing acts of sabotage in Russia could easily escalate the situation to the same level.
According to Murphy, his report “went through a vigorous fact-checking process and was deemed newsworthy,” adding that he published the report to inform the public, saying, “Indeed, the Russian government knows perfectly well who is sponsoring these sabotage strikes. Moreover, the intelligence community wants them to know. The only party left in the dark is the public at large, left unaware of the shadow war taking place behind the scenes.”
Murphy published the report on his personal website. He offered the following explanation as to why it was not published by a media outlet. “While working with editors at mainstream publications, I was asked to do things that were illegal and unethical in one instance, and in another instance, I felt that a senior CIA official was able to edit my article by making off-the-record statements before he leaked a story to The New York Times to undermine this piece,” Murphy wrote at the end of the report.
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Russian media reported Monday morning that a Ukrainian drone had attacked an airbase deep inside Russian territory, killing 3 soldiers. According to reports, the drone was intercepted before debris rained down on the base.
The drone was over Engels airbase in the Saratov region of southern Russia, more than 600km from the Ukrainian border. The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement saying, “On December 26, at around 01:35 Moscow time, a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down at low altitude while approaching the Engels military airfield in the Saratov region.”
The statement continued, “As a result of the drone’s wreckage falling, three Russian technicians who were at the airfield were fatally injured.” According to the Defense Ministry, no aircraft were damaged in the attack, and the governor of Saratov, Roman Busargin, told locals that there is currently “absolutely no threat” to the region.
Due to the panic caused by the Ukrainian drone, Busargin told the public that “All stories about the evacuation from the city are blatant lies, created far from the borders of our country.”
Not only was the drone attack one of the only times that Russian soldiers have been killed on a base far away from the frontlines. Engels is known to house advanced hypersonic and nuclear-capable bombers.
Despite Russian reports that the drone was intercepted by an anti-air defense system, there is speculation that the drone made a direct impact on the base but that Russia is altering the narrative to deny that the Ukrainian operation was successful. Due to the speculation, Busargin cautioned residents not to spread “fake information.”
The drone attack Monday is the second time in 10 months that Engels air base has been attacked by Ukrainian forces.
Despite multiple videos showing what is alleged to be the moment of impact, Russian officials have claimed that the drone was intercepted and shot down “at low altitude” and that the explosions were caused by falling debris hitting the ground.
Earlier this month, on December 5, Ukrainian forces launched simultaneous drone attacks on both Engels and another air base in Ryazan in western Russia, which also hosts nuclear-capable strategic bombers. The previous attack on Engels was the deepest Ukrainians had attacked inside Russian territory.
Ukraine advancing its assaults further into Russian territory could cause Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war and expand its attacks on Ukraine. Only recently has Putin begun to refer to the conflict as a “war” having previously only used the term “special military operation” to refer to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. As things escalate, fears are mounting that Belarus will officially join Russia’s war by sending in ground troops.
With a building string of successes in Crimea and now Russia, it is likely that Ukrainian forces will continue to launch strikes inside Russian territory. Ukraine has also been consistently receiving longer-range weapons from both the U.S. and NATO, which will allow them to launch assaults further from the front line. U.S. intelligence has also been stepping up to assist Ukraine with identifying and locating targets. While it is unclear whether or not the U.S. assisted with the drone attack at Engels, it is a possibility.
Ultranationalist Ukrainian politician Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, went on the Ukrainian television station 24TV to call for a dangerous expansion of the war with Russia beyond the country’s borders, seeking to draw other countries into the conflict.
Danilov called on the Republic of Moldova to resume a decades-old military conflict with the separatist region of Transnistria, claiming that if it fails to do so, Moldova cannot remain an independent state. He also called on Georgia to take military action to reclaim Abkhaziaand South Ossetia, occupied by Russian forces since 2008.“I am certain that, sooner or later, the Moldovans and Georgians will have to join this war because the war of liberation of their territory is mandatory for any country,” Danilov said.
The Ukrainian official noted that it would be easier for Ukraine to fight against Russia if the Republic of Moldova and Georgia joined the military conflict to free their territories from Russian control. Not surprisingly, Danilov did not call on Romania or Moldova to liberate the territories of Northern Bucovina and Southern Bessarabia, as well as Snake Island, seized from Romania by the Soviet Regime and currently occupied by Ukraine.
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The governor of Belgorod Oblast said on Sunday that one civilian was killed, 8 others were injured, and a poultry farm sustained damage amid Ukrainian shelling that targeted the Russian city.
Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram, “One person died. It is known that the man came to us from Tambov and worked as a contractor on the construction of a poultry farm.”
Gladkov added that “An estimated 14,000 residents are still without power supply. Emergency crews are starting to reconnect the grid to backup power sources.”
Due to its proximity to the Ukrainian border, Belgorod has been targeted throughout the war. While there was no evidence that American weapons were used in Sunday’s attacks, the strike comes after the pentagon has agreed to provide long-range Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, which has been taken by Russia as the U.S. supporting Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.
While initially, the U.S. seemed gravely concerned about where the weapons it provided to Ukraine were used, those concerns seem to have diminished in recent weeks. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said last week, “When we give them a weapon system, it belongs to them, where they use it, how they use it, how much ammunition they use to use that system. I mean, those are Ukrainian decisions, and we respect that.”
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While Russian President Vladimir Putin made a questionable visit to neighboring Belarus, the Kremlin began calling on the U.S. to avoid further escalation of the war in Ukraine over Washington’s support for the war-torn country. The warning from the Kremlin comes as concerns mount that Belarusian forces could join the fighting in Ukraine and only days after the Pentagon announced that it would be providing long-range Patriot defense systems, with long-range missiles, to Ukraine.
According to Russian state media reports, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced Monday that the “dangerous and short-sighted policy” of the U.S. has put it “on the brink of a direct clash” with Russia.
Zakharova continued, “It is the US’ desire to maintain American hegemony at all costs… as well as its arrogant unwillingness to engage in a serious dialogue on security guarantees” that led to the current war in Ukraine.
The statements come as a reaction to State Department Spokesperson Ned Price recently blaming Russia for the deterioration of US-Russia relations calling them “unstable nd unpredictable.”
Zakharova’s Monday remarks continued with her saying, “After teh high-profile fiasco in Afghanistan, America is increasingly drawn into a new conflict, not only supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev financially and with weapons, but also increasing its military presence on the ground.” It was unclear what “presence on the ground” Zakharova was referring to, but there have been multiple reports that US intelligence has been assisting Ukrainians more with different aspects of the war including targeting.
The Foreign Ministry Spokesperson concluded Monday’s statement saying, “This is a dangerous and short-sighted policy that puts the US and Russia on the brink of a direct clash. For its part, Moscow urges the Joe Biden administration to soberly assess the situation and not to unleash a spiral of dangerous escalation. We hope that they will hear us in Washington, though there is no reason for optimism so far.”
The warning comes after the US agreed to give in to persistent Ukrainian requests for Patriot missile systems and also after it was revealed last week that US intelligence had helped Ukrainian forces identify, locate, and target multiple Russian generals during the beginning of the war.
Buried in a recently published New York Times deep dive into the last 10 months of the war in Ukraine is a little-known fact – Ukraine’s military and intelligence division attempted to assassinate the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov against the concerns of U.S. officials that it would lead to extreme Russian military escalation.
The article, published Saturday, has not garnered much attention from the U.S. mainstream media. However, Russian state media has taken notice.
According to the piece in the Times, in the spring, Russia’s top military leadership decided that generals needed to make trips to the front line due to poor morale among Russian forces. However, during their visits, Russian generals positioned themselves near communications arrays and antennas making it easy for U.S. intel to identify and locate top Russian commanders in Ukraine.
Despite Ukrainian forces locating and killing several Russian generals, frontline visits from commanders continued until Gen. Valery Gerasimov made secret arrangements to visit the frontlines as well. While U.S. intel had picked up on Gerasimov’s plans, Washington decided not to share the information with Ukraine for fear that Ukrainian forces would strike, leading to an uncontrollable Russian escalation.
Despite the U.S. not passing along Gerasimov’s plans, the Ukrainians learned of the general’s trip. According to a senior American official, “We told them not to do it. We were like, ‘Hey, that’s too much.” Upon receiving the American’s request not to launch the attack, Ukrainian officials announced that the attack had already been undertaken. Dozens of Russians were killed in the attack that targeted the general. However, Gerasimov was unharmed.
After the failed attempt to kill Gerasimov, Russian generals stopped visiting the frontlines.
In May it came to light that the U.S. was engaged in more in-depth intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The increase in information sharing led to specific strikes that killed roughly 12 Russian generals. Given that it was the early part of the war, 12 generals is an exceptionally high number of top commanders to be killed.
While the war in Ukraine might not have gotten as far as it has had General Gerasimov been killed in the strike, it is very likely that the world would be engaged in a nuclear conflict between two, if not more, nuclear-armed countries by this point.
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