Early morning October 26, 2024, the Israeli Air Force launched direct attacks in Iran in retaliation of hundreds of ballistic missiles fired upon Israel in April and early October. Whether these attacks were delayed as a result of leaks by US Department of Defense officials to the Iranians or not, the airstrikes were specifically targeted at Iranian ballistic missile and UAV capabilities.
While details continue to be revealed by a variety of sources, the basic details gleaned from IAF videos and from Iranian social media posts seem to suggest that around 100 Israeli Air Force aircraft participated directly in the attacks and potentially drones as well. While Israel has hundreds of fighter jets, the 1200 mile distance and heavy air defenses would suggest that a combination of F-35, F-15I, F-16I and F-15A/C were used.
Like we saw in Desert Storm, low radar-visibility aircraft, in this case F-35s, would have been used to strike first. Likely the first targets were the S-300 base near Khomeini International Airport close to Tehran. This would in turn give freedom of operation for additional F-35 and F-15I aircraft. The targets seem to center around Karaj where research and development is conducted, Parchin where they manufacture rocket motors, and possibly nuclear research, Shamsabad, east of Tehran, UAV manufacturing, and the IRGC headquarters.
The second wave of non-stealth F-15I or F-16I aircraft, escorted by F-15A/C, may have continued targeting a variety of targets in and around the Tehran area, but there were attacks on Esfahan and Shiraz air bases which is where ballistic missiles are manufactured and assembled. Most likely those would have been the targets of the F-15I/F-16I strikes, because of the heavier loads they can carry.
Other details of the strike will likely be revealed over the coming days, particularly interesting would be the route of flight and whether advanced warning was given to the Saudis. Also, were there air refueling aircraft involved, and where would they have refueled?
Whether the Iranians will respond is the biggest remaining question. The message sent by Israel was that they can fly for four hours over Iran, virtually unopposed and with impunity. Iran on the other hand only has ballistic missiles, now degraded, that have had limited success to respond. Will they risk further direct attacks or cower in their bunkers sending Hamas and Hezbollah to do their dirty work?
IAF Air Order of Battle
36 x F-35
25 x F-15I
102 x F-16I
43 x F-15A/B/C/D
