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Last week, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl, testified before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in "about 12 days."
Ali Safavi, who is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran is, in fact, capable of producing enough weapons-grade enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in "just 12 days."
According to Safavi, in order to produce one nuclear warhead, Iran would only have to utilize 3 advanced centrifuge cascades and only half of its existing supply of 60 percent enriched uranium, leaving plenty of uranium for additional weapons.
If Iran were to utilize its remaining 60 percent enriched uranium, combined with its stock of uranium that is 20 percent enriched, the country would have enough weapons-grade uranium to build 4 additional atomic warheads within a month.
Iran also maintains stocks of 5 percent enriched uranium and could produce two more weapons' worth of enriched uranium from that stockpile in 2 months.
Overall, Iran has enough enriched uranium to potentially build 7 nuclear weapons within 3 months.
"The urgency of addressing the imminent threat posed by Iran's nuclear program cannot be overstated," Safavi said. "With the regime's unwavering determination to obtain a nuclear weapon, the recent internal unrest within Iran, which has weakened the regime even further, may only serve to further motivate them towards this goal," Safavi added.
Additionally, on January 22, the IAEA also discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7 percent during a monthly interim verification at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The IAEA has not been satisfied with Iran's explanation for the highly enriched material and is still conducting a probe for more credible answers.
While it takes far more than just enriched uranium to produce an atomic weapon, Iran's Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) has been operating under the Iranian Ministry of Defense to develop all the necessary components of a nuclear warhead for the past 30 years. Such components include enriched uranium material, an explosion mechanism, and a launching device - like the Shehab 3 missile.
Despite prior setbacks, including the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mahabadi, who was the head of SPND for several years, the organization is still operational and continues its efforts to build a nuclear weapon for Iran.
While Iran appears to have built all or most of the components for a nuclear warhead, the detonation mechanism requires testing before it can be used as part of a weapon, and it is currently unclear as to whether or not the regime has completed the necessary testing of the mechanism, as such, it is unclear what Iran's timeline for the creation of an operational nuclear warhead might be.
What is certain, though, is that Iran has more than enough enriched uranium and the centrifuge facilities to create multiple nuclear weapons once all of the components have been developed and tested.
Safavi expressed a need for urgency on the part of the United States and Europe to condemn Iran's nuclear program and activate Article 6 of the Security Council resolution to enforce sanctions against the country.
"To prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, decisive action is paramount. The international community must prioritize this policy of decisiveness and remain steadfast in their efforts," Safavi said.
"Article 6 of the Security Council resolution and the practical implementation of sanctions must be enforced without waiver, as failure to do so could have dire consequences for regional and global peace and security," Safavi concluded.
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While speaking to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, Undersecretary of Defense, Colin Kahl, suspiciously testified that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear bomb in "about 12 days."
According to Kahl, Iran's enrichment capacity has risen sufficiently since the U.S. abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the "Iran nuclear deal" 5 years ago.
"Because Iran's nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb's worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days," Kahl testified.
"And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice," he added.
Other top officials, however, doubt that Iran is stockpiling uranium enriched beyond 60 percent, which is well below weapons grade. The same officials also have expressed doubts about Iran's technical capabilities to build nuclear weapons.
It is a feat to get enough 90 percent enriched uranium to create a bomb, much less package it into a deliverable, operable weapon. Regardless of whether or not Iran was stockpiling enriched uranium, the country lmay ack the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon.
Despite the confusion, Pentagon officials continue to maintain that the U.S. needs to enter another nuclear deal with Iran, rather than not having one in place.
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As Washington looks for new ways to fund the war in Ukraine, the U.S. Army has begun assessing the possibility of sending thousands of Iranian weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition to Kyiv.
According to anonymous U.S. and European officials, the weapons and ammo to be turned over to Ukraine would include more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses, which were seized recently in the Gulf of Oman while allegedly being shipped to Yemen.
While the weapons and ammunition pale in comparison to what Western allies have sent to Kyiv over the past year, Pentagon officials see the handover of the small weapons cache as a symbolic punishment for Iran, which has been supplying drones to Russia and has recently entered into an agreement with Moscow to build a manufacturing site for Iranian drones inside Russian territory. Both Iran and Russia have denied that Tehran has been supplying Moscow with drones.
According to the U.S. official, “It’s a message to take weapons meant to arm Iran’s proxies and flip them to achieve our priorities in Ukraine, where Iran is providing arms to Russia.”
There are still legal hurdles to clear before the Biden administration can send the weapons to Ukraine. According to the UN arms embargo on Iran, Western countries are required to destroy, store, or get rid of any seized weapons.
President Joe Biden could possibly overcome the legal challenges by creating an executive order or by working with Congress to all the U.S. to seize weapons under the civil forfeiture authorities and then pass them along to Kyiv.
Regarding the U.S. looking for ways to send the seized Iranian weapons and ammo to Ukraine, Yemen’s Deputy Information Minster told the Wall Street Journal, “What change can this make to war?”
NATO Secretary General told NATO defense ministers during a meeting in Brussels on Monday that “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” Ukraine’s Western allies recently requested Latin American nations to also donate some of their weapon stocks to Kyiv – a request which was immediately denied.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro responded to the request last month, saying, “We are not with either side. We are for peace.” Meanwhile, Brazilian leader, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told Biden during a meeting that “Brazil is a country of peace. At this moment, we need to find those who want peace, a word that has so far been used very little.”
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said of the idea, “I don’t think sending weapons to prolong a conflict has support in Latin America.”
The Argentinian government gave a similar sentiment when a defense ministry spokesperson said that the country “will not cooperate with the war.”
While the U.S. and its Western allies continue to look for money and weapons to send to Ukraine, Moscow has issued repeated warnings that should Western countries continue to provide weapons and support to Kyiv, they risk becoming directly involved in the conflict.
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While the U.S. and Europe have joined forces in an effort to target putting sanctions on Iranian-made drones that are being shipped to Russia, Iran and Russia have agreed to establish a joint drone manufacturing facility in Russia, according to a weekend report from Wall Street Journal.
Iran has been supplying Russia with its kamikaze drones, including the Shahed-136, which Moscow has been using to launch persistent strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure. The drones cost $20,000 to produce, and Iran and Russia now have plans to construct a manufacturing site for the drones inside Russian territory. The new facility would allow Russia to produce an additional 6,000 drones for use in its war against Ukraine.
The deal to build a facility in Russia was reportedly agreed to with Iran in November at the height of Russia’s consistent drone attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Concerns are growing, however, that the new manufacturing site could result in new UAVs. A delegation of high-level Iranian officials visited Russia in January to work out the necessary details to get the site running. Russia and Iran plan to use the new facility to design and build a faster drone that would pose new threats to Ukraine and challenge its air defenses.
The Russian facility is also seen as an attempt to avoid what the Biden administration referred to as its plans to “choke off Iran’s ability to manufacture the drones” as U.S. forces assist “Ukrian’s military to target the sites where the drones are being prepared for launch,” according to statements from U.S. officials.
It is an uphill battle for Ukraine as the air defense systems used to intercept and destroy Iran’s kamikaze drones cost far more than the drones themselves. Now, with Iran moving production of the drones to neighboring Russia and increasing production numbers, protecting its cities and infrastructure will become an even bigger challenge for Kyiv.
Following a drone strike on a military facility in Isfahan on Sunday, the Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN sent a warning to the U.S. stating that any military action against Iran would be taken as a declaration of war and would be met with retribution.
On Tuesday, the Permanent Mission to the UN told Newsweek, "In Iran's perspective, the use of the military option at any level means U.S. entry into the war. For now, Iran considers such a possibility to be weak." The mission went on to say that the U.S. will be responsible for the "consequences for the region and the globe," if the U.S. "miscalculates and launches a war."
Meanwhile, Washington has denied involvement in the drone attack, which is believed to have been instigated by the Israelis. A Pentagon spokesperson said, "We've seen the press reports but can confirm that no U.S. military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation but have nothing further to provide."
On January 29, the Iranian Defense Ministry said in a statement that its air defense forces had stopped a drone attack on a military facility in Isafahan. According to the statement, "One of teh drones was hit by the... air defense, and the ohter two were caught in defense traps and blew up... Fortunately, this unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life adn caused minor damage to the workshop's roof."
The moment the facility's defense systems destroyed one of the drones can be seen in videos on social media. The Defense Ministry's statement added that the attack "has not affected our installations and mission... and such blind measures will not have an impact onthe continuation of the country's progress."
While The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli drones attacked a weapons systemes factory in Isfahan. The Iranian Defense Ministry, however, offered no information as to who it suspected is behind the strike. Despite, the Iranian Defense Ministry's claims, it is likely that Israel was behind the attack, given that it has previously been found to have sabotagged the Islamic Republic before.
In light of the attack, Tehran has confirmed that it will continue to make progress on its "peaceful nuclear program," while Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian condemned the "cowardly drone attack."
The Israeli Air Force announced this week that it will conduct a proactive mock mission with the U.S. Air Force to take out Iranian nuclear sites. It is the largest joint aerial drill that the two countries have conducted together in years. According to the Jerusalem Post, “The drill will take place from Tuesday until Thursday over the Mediterranean Sea and Israel. It will include long-range flights such as those that Israeli pilots might need to make in order to reach the Islamic Republic.”
Given the distance of the training, aerial refueling tankers from both countries will participate in the drills along with fighter jets. The joint training comes after the U.S. and Israel have recently promised tighter military and intelligence cooperation and support to one another, with the U.S. promising to assist Israel with missile defense if it were ever to be attacked.
In a meeting with CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla, last week, IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi said, “We are operating together on all fronts to gather intelligence, neutralize threats, and prepare for various scenarios in either one or multiple arenas.”
The joint drills come as Benjamin Netanyahu is forming a government in response to recently being re-elected Prime Minister of Israel. Netanyahu has previously consistently warned that Israel would preemptively strike Iran if the country were ever to develop a nuclear weapon.
In 2011 I wrote a master’s thesis titled “The Children of Aphrodite” where I emphasized America’s lack of readiness to manage the threat posed by drones to our own forces and our homeland. It’s become an often-cited source document for further research in government agencies and private companies since then. Now we see the war in Ukraine taking a heavy turn toward drone use since the attack on the Kerch Bridge. This change also highlights the challenges to Russia’s logistics chains and their inability to maintain the more expensive aircraft. The Russians now destroy infrastructure across Ukraine using a variety of drones, including Kamikaze versions. The world should take note, as the advent and growth of drones mirrors the historical growth of aircraft capabilities and tactics in history. But what once took years and decades starting in World War I can happen in months and years today.
My thesis highlighted potential uses for drones in the future that have since become reality. I analyzed state actors like China, Iran, and Israel. I also highlighted non-state actors like Hezbollah in the Middle East and drug gangs on America’s Southern border. The key predictions I made in 2011 were:
It’s clear to all watching the conflict in Ukraine and the narco wars along America's Southern border that drones are fulfilling these predictions. Iran supplying Russia with drones demonstrates Iran’s continuing ties to Russia while exposing Russia’s own logistics challenges. Israel recently targeted drone assembly facilities in Syria. Syria’s parts, manufactured in Iran, are a clear display of the expected proliferation of not only the completed systems but the supply chain supporting them. China is using drones to agitate and collect intelligence against Taiwan. Lastly, their use by drug gangs is common, and sources in the Border Patrol admitted to me that they were not expecting how quickly the gangs would employ them.
The drone wars highlight that the minimal training and cost required to employ them means drone use will increase. A million-dollar tank can be destroyed by an $80,000 javelin after minimal training. A $25 million MIG-29 would buy 25,000 drones at $1,000 each. That same MIG-29 can also be destroyed by an inexpensive Stinger missile. Countries counting pennies while in conflict see the advantage of low cost, easy to procure systems. The math behind drones says we better get used to them in all future conflicts.
America’s military has improved our own drone systems significantly since I authored my thesis. But the U.S. is still plagued by considerable expense and bureaucracy behind how we procure our systems. While Russians successfully targeted vehicles, convoys, and structures using simple off the shelf quadcopters costing $750-$1000, Americans paid $10,000 for the Raven drone, not including their ground equipment and support costs. Also, by the time our systems are fielded, the technology is already old. America’s drone fleet is another victim of an antiquated procurement process.
America is not ready for conflict on a battlefield where drones are more common, versatile, and effective than tanks. We must consider that the total cost of the systems we are accustomed to employing combined with the speed of technological developments is driving them to extinction. We’ve improved our ability to counter the drones used by other nations, but we must learn the lessons coming out of Ukraine and our own Southern border. There are companies developing technologies and techniques to win the drone wars. But we are hindered by our slow-moving government acquisitions process. We must change to make sure the speed of the developments in drones is at least matched and then exceeded by our ability counter drones from other nations.
The conflict in Ukraine is a window to the future, we better see it clearly.
1 https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=697903
3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/29/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/
5 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/10/world/asia/china-taiwan-drones.html
Lt. Col. (Ret.) Darin Gaub is an Army veteran, Blackhawk helicopter pilot and former Air Assault Battalion Commander, international military strategist, and Co-founder/Executive Director of Restore Liberty. Col. Gaub spent 28 years in military service, with 7 years in command, and three years training military forces for combat, including “hybrid warfare” environments. He helped to build contingency plans for the unique characteristics of a conflict in Eastern Europe based on lessons from Russian operations in Georgia and Syria. He completed four deployments to Afghanistan, as well as South Korea, Eastern Europe, and North Africa.
Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, explained: Since mid-September, a new aerial menace has begun harrying the Ukrainian people—explosive-laden kamikaze drones imported from Iran by Russia. The noisy flying-wing aircraft traverse hundreds of miles before nose-diving into civilian and military targets across Ukraine. Together with harder-hitting cruise missiles, they’ve knocked out one-third of Ukraine’s power plants leaving millions in the dark and cold.
These Shahed-136 kamikaze drones built by Iranian company HESA are hardly state-of-the-art compared to expensive hypersonic weapons being developed by Russia and the United States. But they’re so cheap Russia can launch dozens every day, with Ukrainian intelligence claiming Russia is ordering an additional 2,400 beyond the hundreds delivered earlier this summer.
The Shaheds are no war-winning wonder weapon, but they have the potential to cause significant destruction and harm—and forecast disruption of offense/defense balance in future armed conflicts...
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