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As Russia pushes into a second year of war with Ukraine, the Biden administration has continuously committed to sending more and more financial and military aid to Kyiv. Biden has even gone so far as to say that the U.S. will support Ukraine indefinitely as the war continues with no end in sight. Meanwhile, at home, U.S. arms manufacturers are struggling to meet the heightened demand, and arms and ammunition for American forces are at dangerously low levels.
As top officials in the Biden administration seem to announce new aid packages for Ukraine weekly, Americans are beginning to wonder when Washington will realize that U.S. national security is at risk due to the administration’s blind aid agreements.
Not only is Biden sending arms and munitions to Ukraine faster than American manufacturers can produce them, but Ukrainian troops have been burning through the supply at such an alarming rate that the U.S. military has had to train Ukrainian forces on different fighting tactics that use less artillery.
To date, Biden has sent approximately one-third of U.S. stockpiles of both Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Kyiv. Meanwhile, U.S. arms manufacturers typically produce between 1,000 and 2,100 Javelins a year. Now, the Army is struggling to get the produces to manufacture up to 4,000 a year, and it’s unlikely to happen.
According to some estimates, the Ukrainians are using 6,000 to 7,000 155 mm artillery shells a day, a rate that could deplete the entirety of Britain’s stockpile of NATO-standard 155 mm shells in a mere 8 days. Ukrainian troops are also burning through ammo for U.S.-manufactured HIMARS (high-mobility artillery rocket system) and other types of munitions just as quickly.
The picture of the situation gets even bleaker if one factors in the possibility of the U.S. defending Taiwan should China attack the island. Should the U.S. defend Taiwan if China decides to attack, the U.S. could run out of ammunition, like missiles, artillery shells, etc., in one week.
The ammunition problems are compounded by supply chain issues. In many cases, manufacturers are having to wait months, in some cases over a year, to receive some of the necessary components.
Other concerns include being able to accurately estimate the amount of arms and munitions that are needed. With the war in Ukraine continuing with no sort of timeline to work off of and rising tensions between Beijing, Washington, and Taipei, it’s challenging for the military to accurately assess how many munitions need to be produced.
According to Secretary of the Army Douglas Bush, “The long-term challenge will be how much of that capacity can we sustain over time, post-conflict.”
“We don’t know how long the conflict will last. We don’t know how low our stocks will be,” Bush added.
Meanwhile, many Americans have expressed concern that the Biden administration is putting its support of Ukraine ahead of U.S. national security and is setting the U.S. up for catastrophe should the country get further involved with Ukraine due to Russian provocation, or come to the aid of Taiwan if China decides to attack.
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In his remarks on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that Western countries must "help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones and that's why the United Kingdom will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons."
According to Sunak, the UK government is working with its NATO allies to "give Ukraine the most advanced air defence systems and build the air force they need to defend their nation."
"[The United Kingdom] is ready to help any country to provide Ukraine planes they need today, but we must also train Ukrainian pilots to use advanced jets," he added.
Sunak's escalation comes as the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed concern that China is considering moving from "providing rhetorical, political, diplomatic support to Russia" to "providing lethal support to Russia." Should that happen, Blinken has warned that it would have "serious consequences" for Chinese-American relations.
Over the past year, the UK has provided almost £4 billion in aid to Ukraine, with £2.3 billion of that given in the form of military aid that included weapons, ammunition, and other military gear and equipment.
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Ukraine earlier this month, the UK parliament began considering sending fighter jets and long-range missiles to Kyiv.
The two types of long-range missiles being considered are the 150-mile range Harppon high-explosive, which is an anti-ship missile, and the 350-mile range Storm Shadow cruise missile. Kyiv has said that if it receives the missiles, they will be used to expand the war by launching an assault on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine back in 2014.
It is also possible that the British long-range missiles could be used to target Russian territory, which could easily escalate the conflict from a localized war to a full-scale global conflict.
Sunak has also suggested that NATO add a "new charter" in its agreement in order to "help protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression."
When Zelensky visited London earlier this month, he and Sunak signed the London Declaration, in which Britain recommitted to its stance of supporting Ukraine's admission to NATO, which Russia has cited as a cause for the invasion, saying that having NATO expand to its doorstep is a "red line."
Despite, threats from the Kremlin, the declaration states, "[t]he UK has continued to lead the way in support for Ukraine to defend itself, including anti-tank weapons and tanks. Our military support to Ukraine is enduring. UK support will continue to contribute across all three domains; Land, Air, Sea."
The UK was not the only country calling for additional aid for Ukraine at the Munich conference. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that the world should prepare for a "long war" and called for Germany's Western allies to continue to supply Ukraine with more weaponry, tanks, and ammunition.
Despite French President Emmanuel Macron initially being a proponent of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, he announced in Munich that now is "not the time for dialogue." Hopes for a peaceful resolution were further diminished when Zelensky stated that he would not accept any peace agreement if it required territorial concessions to Russia, which is likely to be seen as a non-starter for Moscow.
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On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that it will be increasing the production of artillery ammunition by 500% over the next two years due to depleted military stockpiles caused by sending millions of shells to Ukraine.
Due to the Biden administration’s promise to send more than one million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, the U.S. army will be forced to increase its production numbers from 14,400 155 mm shells a month to more than 90,000 each month.
According to an Army report, the military will expand factories and contract with new producers to meet the demand. The effort is being described as “the most aggressive modernization effort in nearly 40 years” of the US military-industrial complex.
Multiple arms manufacturers are involved in the production of the 155mm shells that are used as ammunition for Howitzers. The steel bodies for the shells are produced by General Dynamics. BAE Systems mixes the explosives used in the shells, and American Ordnance fills the bodies with the explosives manufactured by BAE Systems. Additional contractors produce the fuses that are eventually screwed into the shells.
While there is no sign of Russia’s war against Ukraine ending anytime soon, the U.S. military drastically increasing ammunition production for the next 2 years is seen as an indicator that the U.S. intends to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia for potentially years to come.
There are concerns that the increased ammunition production is not sustainable long-term. U.S. military officials have indicated that it may be challenging for the U.S. to continue arming both Ukraine’s military and the United States’ military as the war continues. It is estimated that Ukrainian troops are currently using approximately 90,000 artillery rounds each month. That figure is more than double what the U.S. and Europe are currently able to produce.
In its effort to continuously support Ukraine, the U.S. has had to access a little-known stockpile of weapons stored in Israel to meet Ukraine’s demand. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has also requested that U.S. troops stationed in South Korea send equipment to Ukraine as well.
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While the U.S. Treasury is taking extreme measures to avert a crisis as the June debt ceiling deadline approaches, the Biden administration has promised another $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. On Thursday, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced the aid package and vowed that the U.S. “will stand united with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
The current aid package comes after Congress passed a massive $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that granted $45 billion to Ukraine. The spending bill brought the total amount of U.S. aid provided to Ukraine to over a staggering $110 billion.
Congress added to the omnibus bill an additional $8 billion to the $37 billion in aid that the Biden administration had requested.
In a press release, Blinken said, “Pursuant to a delegation of authority from the President, I am authorizing our 30th drawdown of U.S. arms and equipment for Ukraine since August 2021.”
Blinken added:
This assistance package will provide Ukraine with hundreds of additional armored vehicles, including Stryker armored personnel carriers, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled vehicles. The package also includes critical additional air defense support for Ukraine, including more Avenger air defense systems, and surface to air missiles, as well as additioanl munitions for NASAMS that the United States has previously provided. The package also contains night vision devices, small arms ammunition, and other items to support Ukraine as it bravely defends its people, its sovereignty, and its territorial integrity.
Blinken went on to say that the U.S. “continues to rally the world to support Ukraine” and commended the “incredible solidarity from our allies and partners” in assisting Ukraine.
“Russia alone could end this war today. Until it does so, we will stand United with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Blinken added.
In a letter expressing concerns about the continuously increasing aid packages for Ukraine, Republican Congressmen Sen J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) wrote, “Taken together, the four Ukraine supplemental spending bills passed since the escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict in February of 2022 amount to arguably the fourth-largest discretionary appropriations bill. Further, multiple DOD Inspectors General advisories have raised questions about DOD’s budget execution practices in regards to these funds.”
The lawmakers also demanded a “full crosscutting report” of all the “U.S. government-wide expenditures for Ukraine and ‘countries impacted by the situation in Ukraine’ since February 24, 2022.”
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On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department authorized a $3.75 billion potential sale of M1A1 Abrams tanks to Poland. Also included in the deal are the necessary ordinance and equipment for the tanks.
While negotiations for the deal are ongoing, the request for the tanks was made due to a recent rise in Russian military action in Ukraine, which shares a border with Poland. On November 15, an errant Ukrainian air-defense missile accidentally landed in the Polish border town of Przewodów, killing 2 and prompting Poland to begin gathering arms and systems with which to defend itself. The country has already received a Patriot air-defense system from Germany.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been working on a build-up in Poland that includes 800 pieces of equipment, including cars and tanks, which arrived in Poland over the weekend as part of 'Operation Atlantic Resolve.' The operation will also send soldiers from the 1st Infantry Division to Poland and other parts of Europe for 9 months, at which time they will be replaced by other soldiers.
While the U.S. has refrained from sending long-range drones and missiles to Ukraine that would be capable of striking well into Russian territory, the U.S. has provided more than $100 billion in financial and military aid to Ukraine's military and is now ramping up activity with its NATO allies.
For around 60 years, the United States published an annual study called the World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT) report. The document provided detailed information on global arms transfers, defense spending, and a range of other military-related topics.
For reasons that remain unclear, last year’s defense spending bill put an end to the report. The State Department published its final edition last month, quietly marking the end of an era in military disclosures.
“At one point in history, the WMEAT report was the model for transparency around the world,” Jeff Abramson of the Arms Control Association said, noting the importance of its Cold War-era origins...
To read more visit Responsible Statecraft.
WASHINGTON ― Several U.S. senators on Tuesday asked for additional briefings and reports on President Joe Biden’s new $13.7 billion funding request for Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion.
The White House budget office last week announced the latest Ukraine aid request, which includes $11.7 billion for security and economic assistance through December. It also seeks an additional $2 billion to reduce domestic energy costs driven up in part by the war.
Defense spending panel chairman Jon Tester, D-Mont., told Defense News he wants Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin or Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks to provide more information on the request...
To read more visit Defense News.
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