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While the story is still unfolding, US and British military forces have struck Houthi rebel forces in Yemen in an effort to protect shipping in the Red Sea.  The shipping lanes lead to the ports of Akaba and Eilat, where significant goods for both Jordan and Israel transit, as well as the Suez Canal, where 30% of all container ships pass.  The importance of these shipping lanes cannot be underestimated.  But the bigger story is how a weak Biden administration has encouraged enemies of the West to attack in the first place.

Iran’s influence in the Middle East ebbed under the Trump administration, when our military assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp.  While the Iranians tried to retaliate via the shootdown of a US drone, Trump was not goaded into a response that would have diminished the impact of killing.  The impact of the assassination, along with Israeli attacks on IRGC forces in Syria, rolled back Iranian power in the region.

Since Joe Biden has taken office, his failed Afghanistan withdrawal, failed Ukraine policy, and weakening of our military forces, through DEI initiatives, vaccine mandates and political military promotion, Iran has become emboldened.  Dozens of attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria have gone unanswered.  And on October 7th, the Hamas terrorist attack led to the outbreak of war that threatens to spillover into a regional conflict.  

In addition to Hamas attacks, Hezbollah in Lebanon has attacked using numerous rockets, missiles, and drones to attack Israeli civilians along the northern border.  But the biggest threat came via Yemen, where Iranian backed Houthis used drones and missiles, supplied directly by Iran to attack Israel, as well as shipping in the Red Sea.  Shipping has all but halted along this important trade route.  The US and UK response now has the increased probability of dragging the West into a wider war, depending on Iranian response.

Had Biden not projected weakness, deterrence might very well have prevented the entire cascade of events.  It is possible that even the Hamas attacks might not have been allowed by Iran.  The West now has no choice but to defend the Red Sea and Suez shipping lanes, but at an much increased possibility of a wider Middle East conflict.  Only time will tell if Iran will response with direct military confrontation, or more asymmetrically with a terrorist attack on US or European soil.