Satellite imagery showing repairs at Fordow underway

In 2003, then Secretary of State Colin Powell addressed the UN regarding Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction program. “Every statement I make today is backed up by solid sources,” he said. “What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions. Clearly, Saddam Hussein and his regime will stop at nothing until something stops him.” After the invasion, it was found that the US case for WMD’s was false. However, the war could not be stopped and would cost the US trillions and thousands of servicemember lives.1

On 15 February 1898, the USS Maine exploded in Havana’s harbor. Initial intelligence concluded that it was sunk by an external explosion, presumably a Spanish laid mine. ‘Remember the Maine, and the hell with Spain’ quickly became a rallying cry and the US soon was at war with Spain. In the 1970s, new evidence pointed to a more likely cause of the explosion – an internal fire in the coal bunker. The ultimate cause may never be known, but at the time, the US was eager to have a war to gain control in Cuba and overseas territories so objective investigations were not possible at the time. The USS Maine was a convenient excuse to finally go to war.

In September 1944, the Allies tried to execute Operation Market Garden, a bold gambit to have airborne forces seize a series of bridges deep into the Netherlands to allow swift victory in the war. Eisenhower allowed Montgomery tremendous resources for the plan, which ultimately failed due to a multitude of factors including ambitious timelines and ignoring intelligence on German strength, particularly at Arnhem, the final objective. The 1977 movie A Bridge Too Far depicts how Allied politics overcame prudence and ignored intelligence:

Lt. Gen. Frederick Browning: Only the weather can stop us now.

General Stanislaw Sosaboski: Weather. What of the Germans, General Browning. Don't you think that if we know Arnhem is so critical to their safety that they might know it too?

Lt. General Frederick Browning: See here, General Sosaboski, I should think you would have more faith in Field Marshal Montgomery's plan.

General Stanislaw Sosaboski: Faith? I will tell you how much faith I have. I am thinking of asking for a letter from you stating that I was ordered to go on this mission in case my men are massacred.

Lt. General Frederick Browning: I see... I do see. Do you wish such a letter?

General Stanislaw Sosaboski: No... In the case of massacre: what difference will it make?

Last week, the US executed a complicated bombing mission to destroy three Iranian nuclear sites. From a technical standpoint, the mission seemed nearly flawless. No aircraft were lost and direct hits with large bombs were achieved at all of the planned objectives. However, as with any bombing mission, exact bomb damage assessment is impossible unless the US is physically on the ground where the bombs detonated. Damage assessment is complicated and the intelligence community still has assessment of the impact of the bombing on the Iranian nuclear effort ongoing. In short, the strategic impact of the raid remains to be seen.

It is worth noting that precision bombing, while impressive on the news, has never in itself achieved ‘unconditional victory.’ Strategic bombing in WW1, WW2, Korea, and Vietnam by itself did not achieve victory. Even the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan did not achieve victory by themselves. Conventional bombing caused far more damage than those two bombs did and the imminent invasion from the USSR and US involving millions of troops likely had a significant influence on the Japanese decision to surrender.

Before the dust had literally cleared on the targeted sites in Iran, President Trump declared, “Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” Trump and his officials have used the word “obliterated” non-stop since then. The message was clear that the bombing was to be labeled 100% successful and anything to the contrary was attacked viciously by US government officials. Further, SECDEF Hegseth and others quickly alleged that any disagreement with Trump’s assessment was tantamount to treason and disrespected the US aircrews that carried out the attacks.

A report leaked from the Defense Intelligence Agency indicated that the bombing may not have completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability. Interestingly, only left leaning news outlets covered the potential revelation objectively – CNN and MSNBC.

The report was quickly rebuffed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She called CNN’s reporting “blatant lies.” She went on to declare, ““Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”2 She went on to say, ““This alleged “assessment” is flat-out wrong and was classified as “top secret” but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community…“The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program.”3

Trump on Truth Social: ““The sites we hit in Iran were totally destroyed, and everyone knows it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday, disputing “Fake News” he claims “would say anything different in order to try and demean, as much as possible—and even they say they were ‘pretty well destroyed!’” Trump claimed Saturday that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated,” adding late Sunday Iran’s nuclear site in Fordow sustained “monumental damage.”4

GEN Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, seemed to be the only objective person on the national stage, stating it was “way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.”5

As an American, I hope that the bombing achieved its objective. However, I also know that preliminary assessments are often wrong. As an amateur student of history, bombing damage assessments are similarly often wrong. As a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, I am triggered when intelligence that potentially makes civilian and military leaders look bad is suppressed and disparaged. Doing so discourages honesty in the military intelligence community. In November 2021 at the West Point Class of 1996 Reunion, then BG Scott Naumann declared that the images of Kabul falling in August 2021 were “misinformation” spread by the press. Tragically, faulty intelligence doomed the US to a war in Iraq that still festers 22 years later. Ignoring obvious intelligence that the war in Afghanistan was unwinnable doomed the US military to 20 years of sacrifice in Afghanistan for no reason at the end of the day when the US withdrew and the Taliban declared victory.

If it comes to pass that the Iranian nuclear program was not “obliterated,” the US stands to lose tremendous international standing. Many nations already likely distrust us after the lie that led us to invade Iraq in 2003. Disregarding intelligence also disrespects our military. Not every mission succeeds, but at least the country needs to be honest about military operations’ outcomes. 20 years of lies by US military and civilian leaders regarding the war in Afghanistan made the sting from the ultimate loss that much worse to many veterans.

Military intelligence is like a medical diagnosis. You don’t have to like it, but you have to acknowledge it or you will be harmed. The truth will come out eventually.

  1. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146332
  2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/total-obliteration-karoline-leavitt-erupts-on-live-tv-defending-trump-s-iran-bombing/ar-AA1HrYgQ?ocid=BingNewsSerp
  3. https://www.thedailybeast.com/karoline-leavitt-melts-down-at-loser-for-iran-failure-leak/
  4. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-claims-iran-nuclear-sites-totally-destroyed-but-that-clashes-with-vance-and-us-intelligence/ar-AA1HgyDw?ocid=BingNewsSerp
  5. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-claims-iran-nuclear-sites-totally-destroyed-but-that-clashes-with-vance-and-us-intelligence/ar-AA1HgyDw?ocid=BingNewsSerp