Treaties only work when there is credible deterrence and willingness to inflict cost for a party failing to adhere to the treaty.

Congressman Mike Turner created a freak out on media and Capitol Hill with his unprecedented break in traditional decorum on sensitive space matters.

Here are some take aways:

• Congressman Turner was grandstanding (at least a bit) to help move Ukraine aid forward.
• Is there some truth to the commotion over Russian nukes in space? Maybe
• The Intelligence Community (IC) has ignored the rapid Chinese nuclear build up until very very recently and is hyper-over-obsessed with Russia when the pacing threat has been China for almost 10 years.
• Have the Russians violated treaties in the past: Absolutely. The blatant disregard by Russia for the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty was a well known secret for years. The Obama Biden Team though did nothing but clutch pearls and seek to grovel to the Russians for more treaties. President Trump saw the utter foolishness on this and came to the obvious conclusion of why waste time and resources on a treaty that was patently absurd. This led to the move to re-introduce Tomahawk with Nuclear Warhead for regional deterrence which is now law in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act.
• If the Russians put a nuke in orbit, the Chinese have put 10. This is intuitive when comparing space activities, military build up, Gross Domestic Product etc.
• A nuke in orbit violates the Space Treaty of 1967. The Russians were spooked to the table by the development of the X-20 Dyna-Soar (Dynamic Soaring Vehicle - the first hypersonic platform). They didn’t know what it was and neither did we - it was hyper-revolutionary. It brought the Russians to the table and we cancelled the program. Forty years later, China took old X-20 plans and have been replicating the X-20 in modern variants while we did nothing.
• The Blue Team loves treaties, which has created a cult for treaties in the American National Security apparatus. Working on a treaty team is the premier creme de la creme as far as gigs for the national security bureaucrat. You get to talk in abstract, sophisticated terms, using a fake British accent while living the high life in Vienna, Austria at the U.S. Government Office complex (same place the corrupt and penetrated Iran Team of Rob Malley works). Curiously, Huawei has a large footprint in the same building. Must be total coincidence. Vienna is not the only place treaty teams work. They get to go to all these beautiful places, eating smoked salmon, living a life detached from reality and actually having to accomplish something. Occasionally they also get to go TDY for treaty verification, but only after many months of pre-coordination to ensure the other team hides everything. This is the Pakistan model of looking for Bin Laden. Looking for Bin Laden and finding Bin Laden are two totally different things. Pakistan and the National Security Bureaucrat know that the nano-second Bin Laden or a nuclear violation is found, the largesse and cushy trips will cease.
• Treaties only work if there is a credible deterrence in effect that malign nations like Russia or China respect and there is clarity and resolve to inflict cost for non-conformance. They know President Trump will inflict cost and that they can play the Blue Team indefinitely.

The obvious conclusion for the rational mind: MAGA

ColRetJohn Substack

• War Stories - Maj Gen 'Hawk' Hollingsworth (USMC, Ret) - Vietnam 2/17/24
• Everything But Woke-ism