On 21 June 2025, the US bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites. President Trump had threatened to do so after talks broke off with Iran so the action itself is not surprising. However, coming off the heels of 2 recent disastrous Middle East wars where the US brashly began wars involving regime change and insurgencies, it is fair to ask if the US finally has a plan to deal with all possible contingencies in its newest war.

In 2001, the US invaded Afghanistan after 9-11. At that time, it enjoyed popular support at home and abroad. The Taliban were quickly routed on Afghan soil and the US seemed confident of a transition to a new regime. Then, the nightmare began as a broad based insurgency arose that ultimately overran the corrupt, weak government and military that the US wasted billions creating in a 20 year war and losing endeavor.

In 2003, the US invaded Iraq under the pretense of destroying weapons of mass destruction and the regime that allegedly wielded them. Hussein’s regime was quickly toppled. However, as in Afghanistan, it became very apparent that for the second time in 2 years the US had just started a major war in the Middle East that achieved regime change but had no plan for the aftermath and no plan to effectively deal with the insurgency. Even though Hussein and the Taliban were generally disliked in their respective countries, their removal did not automatically bring peace. Instead, it brought a vacuum of power that was filled with violence and years of insurgencies of every flavor. History shows that countries that have never had a democracy can’t just be made democratic peaceful societies by simply removing a dictator. It is likely that Iran could view US ‘occupiers’ as infidel invaders like Iraq and Afghanistan did. With Jewish allies in this fight that sentiment could be far worse making resistance to the establishment of a ‘friendly’ regime in Tehran difficult, if not impossible.

The US is very good at “shock and awe.” Dropping bombs is easy. Starting wars is easy. Finishing them in a satisfactory fashion is often hard. This question must be answered before the first shot is fired or a predictable disaster is likely to unfold. After the Iraq War nightmare began to heat up, Colin Powell famously stated “You Break It, You Own It.”

The US has generals that are very good at tactically and operationally overwhelming conventional forces. The same generals, have shown a complete inability to win long wars against extremely inferior opponents because they cannot think strategically. Afghanistan had largely illiterate Taliban fighters with old rifles and IED’s fighting us to a standstill for 2 decades. The US had exponentially more troops, vehicles, and resources. The Taliban lacked a navy, an air force, and even conventional tactical vehicles until the very end.

Iran is a country twice the size of Afghanistan and with much better military equipment and technology than either Iraq or Afghanistan had. Tucker Carlson famously just embarrassed one of the leading war hawks, Ted Cruz, in a recent interview. Cruz is a respected Senator and has done some great things for our country as a legislator. However, he has been historically aggressive to support new wars. His interview was a forced error; a seasoned politician should know the answers to such basic questions. A portion of the interview follows:

“CARLSON: How many people are living in Iran, by the way?

CRUZ: I don’t know the population.

CARLSON: At all?

CRUZ: No, I don’t know the population.

CARLSON: You don’t know the population of the country you seek to topple?

CRUZ: How many people live in Iran?

CARLSON: Ninety-two million.

CRUZ: Ok. Yeah, I–

CARLSON: How could you not know that?

CRUZ: I don’t sit around memorizing population tables.

CARLSON: Well, it’s kind of relevant because you’re calling for the overthrow of the government.

CRUZ: Why is it relevant, whether it’s 90 million or 80 million or 100 million? Why is that relevant?

CARLSON: Well, because if you don’t know anything about the country–

CRUZ: I didn’t say I don’t know anything about the country.

CARLSON: Ok, what’s the ethnic mix of Iran?

CRUZ: They are Persians and predominantly Shia–

CARLSON: What percent?

CRUZ: Ok, this is cute. Ok–

CARLSON: You don’t know anything about Iran. So, actually, the country–

CRUZ: Ok, I am not the Tucker Carlson expert on Iran, who says–

CARLSON: You’re a senator who’s calling for the overthrow of the government and you don’t know anything about the country”

A long sitting Senator that has voted eagerly and often for military interventions (most that have failed miserably) on public TV showed his ignorance about the country he cannot wait to attack and possibly even invade.

As of today, the war with Iran has begun. The decision that directed this action cannot be undone. Let’s hope that the powers that be in the US military and intelligence communities know more than Ted Cruz and have a plan of action to deal with events such as:

Other countries join in and it becomes a regional war

Pakistan (a nuclear power) decides to get involved with conventional forces or even nuclear weapons

The administration gets its wish and the Iranian regime crumbles. Is there a plan to deal with the aftermath to avoid civil war or prevent some other dangerous regime from seizing power?

What if an American plane gets shot down and the crew is captured by Iranian forces? What will the US do with no troops on the ground? Are Americans prepared to see its pilots abused and/or executed?

Is the US prepared to spend likely trillions and expend thousands of lives of servicemembers if the crisis escalates and a ground war erupts?

With a global economy still weakened by tariff wars, how much damage would be done by a massive disruption of trade and disruption to the shipping of oil and goods in Iran’s sector of the ocean?

There are many other frightening outcomes that could come from this intervention. The task of eliminating Iran as a nuclear threat is an important one and few are in dispute of achieving the goal. However, the US has to go about this in a way that is better than we did in our two recent failed ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan or a much larger disaster could unfold.