Now that the wars with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have seemingly ended, and the border with Syria relatively quiet, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has turned his attention to Iran. In a recent meeting with President Donald Trump, the subject of American support for an attack on Iran’s nuclear program was discussed. Though the details have not been revealed, it has been suggested that the US is weighing options for supporting a potential Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Suggestions have been made that Israel would require US military support, but on October 26, 2024, the Israeli Air Force struck Iran in three waves involving over 100 aircraft, including the F-35A, that lasted over three hours. The strikes were conducted against Iranian S-300 air defense sites, early warning radar systems, drone and missile manufacturing infrastructure. The IAF suffered no losses, and they were able to degrade the Iranian air defenses should an attack take place in the coming weeks.
Though the October attack was limited in its goals, the fact they were virtually unopposed could not have gone unnoticed in Tehran. They were defenseless in the face of a determined and advanced air force. The Israeli Air Force must feel confident they can successfully destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities, especially now that the Trump administration has delivered the bunker busting bombs the Biden administration held up. But at the same time, this may be the leverage President Trump needs to get the Iranians to the negotiating table.
The Iranian’s Middle East proxies are in ruins and their major state patron, the Russians, are now reportedly open to negotiating with Trump on the soil of rival Saudi Arabia to end the Ukraine war. Add Trumps order to seek maximum economic sanctions on Iran and they are at the most vulnerable they have been since the first Trump administration. There has been no better time to negotiate with the Iranians to halt their nuclear program.
While Bibi Netanyahu continues to saber rattle about attacking Iran, it is most likely an attempt on his part to rehabilitate his public image as a security hawk that has been severely damaged by the October 7th disaster. He has talked tough on Iran for years, but in truth he has not had the courage to attack. He had the momentum, the public backing in Israel and the tacit green light internationally after the second Iranian missile barrage on October 1, 2024. He flinched and missed the opportunity, instead opting for a limited attack.
The time has passed for the attack, and indeed for Prime Minister Netanyahu. He has been judged wanting by the people and only by the chaotic parliamentary system of Israel has he survived thus far. There will be a national inquiry and as the prime minister, he will be found responsible. In the meantime, President Trump will use Netanyahu’s bombast and the leverage the President has built to avoid war, but achieve the outcome Israel, and indeed all the Middle East needs – a non-nuclear Iran.
